000 AGXX40 KNHC 020739 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST TUE MAR 02 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... ...A VERY PROGRESSIVE BROAD SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH AMPLE ENERGY PROVIDED BY THE SO PERSISTENT STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM THAT ORIGINATES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC NE TO ACROSS THE GULF AND ENE OVER FLORIDA... THE 0600 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1002 MB LOW ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST NEAR APALACHICOLA WITH COLD FRONT SW TO 25N87W TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND QUICKLY APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING INCREASING SLY WINDS WITH SEAS UP 9 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE A SQUALL LINE WITH SCATTERED TSTMS IS BEING OBSERVED TO THE E OF THE FRONT. BOTH BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 0348 UTC THIS MORNING ARE SHOWING NW-N WINDS OF 20-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS UP TO 14 FT AS REPORTED BY BUOY 42020 NEAR 27N97W. MODELS PRETTY MUCH AGREE THAT THE LOW TRACKS NE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA AND N FLORIDA TODAY PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FAR SE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON ...AND TO E OF THE GULF IN THE EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST E AND W OF THE FRONT N OF 25N IN THE E GULF...AND N OF 26N IN THE MIDDLE GULF FOR TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN GALE STRENGTH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEASTATE LOWERING THROUGHOUT. GOING INTO FRI AND SAT THE HIGH MOVES E ALLOWING FOR INCREASING RETURN SLY FLOW TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN THE FAR WESTERN WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM 16N76W TO 10N80W. A VERY MINIMAL HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM 0204 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR SRN WATERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST...AND AN AREA OF E 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE FAR SE WATERS NEAR THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. ELSEWHERE WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE...WITH DIRECTIONS FROM THE NE-E IN THE 10-15 KT IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...AND SE W OF 84W. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING ...AND REACH FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS BY LATE TUE...FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR NRN COSTA RICA ON WED...THEN LIKE THE RECENT ONES ALSO WEAKEN FROM THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN SW TO NEAR 15N76W LATE WED INTO THU. IT APPEARS THAT NW TO N WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. WINDS MAY REACH UP TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND NRN COSTA RICA ON WED WITH SEAS UP 9 OR 10 FT. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... THE 0228 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWED NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NE WATERS. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE FAR SE WATERS WITH NE WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 75 NM NW OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SE INTO THE NW PORTION OF OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE DISSIPATING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N...AND ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUE THROUGH LATE WED. THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM 26N65W TO HISPANIOLA BY LATE ON WED...AND FROM 22N61W TO VICINITY U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THU AND FRI...AND FROM 22N57W TO FAR NE CARIBBEAN SEA BY SAT. SEAS UP TO 10 FT IN A NW TO N SWELL SHOULD ARRIVE INTO THE NRN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC BEGINNING LATE THU INTO FRI...THEN SUBSIDE TO 8 FT ON SAT. S TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THU THROUGH SAT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NW AT 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. LINGERING LARGE NW SWELLS OF UP TO 11 FT WILL BE SLOW IN SUBSIDING OVER THE SW N ATLC ZONE FRI AND SAT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .GALE WARNING N OF 25N THROUGH WED...AMZ080 CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING N OF 26N...GMZ084 .GALE WARNING N OF 25N...GMZ086 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE