000 AGXX40 KNHC 010736 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST MON MAR 01 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A VERY PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM ORIGINATING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND STRETCHING NE ACROSS THE AREA WILL HELP SET OFF YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING SURFACE LOW WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING TODAY. THE 0600 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1019 MB HIGH POSITIONED JUST W OF THE SW FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N82W. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN WATERS WHERE BOTH THE BUOYS AND A 0408 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS ARE REVEALING S WINDS OF 20-25 KT. SEAS HAVE LOWERED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE GULF (3-5 FT S OF 25N...AND 2-4 FT N OF 25N)...BUT HAVE RECENTLY ELEVATED UP TO 10 FT IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION BEING REPORTED BY BUOY 42020. SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN FORECASTING ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TODAY AS IT QUICKLY SWEEPS E ACROSS THE GULF. MODELS SHOW A FURTHER N TRACK TO THE LOW WHICH LEADS TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS UNDER STRONG CAA NW TO N FLOW WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF MON AND TUE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE LOW RATHER DRAMATICALLY ONCE IT REACHES THE FAR NE WATERS EARLY ON TUE. GALE FORCE WINDS IN SLY WINDS SEEMS MORE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUE. THE FRONT AND LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE GULF TUE AFTERNOON. W-NW WINDS OF 20-30 KT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE FRONT SPREADING TO AS FAR S AS THE WATERS AROUND CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE INTO WED. CANNOT RULE POSSIBLE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WITH THESE WINDS. THESE WINDS THEN WEAKEN WED AFTERNOON INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEASTATE LOWERING THROUGHOUT. BY FRI THE HIGH MOVES E SOME ALLOWING FOR INCREASING RETURN SLY FLOW TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN THE FAR WESTERN WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NEAR 15N75W WHERE IT IS DISSIPATING SW TO THE COAST OF SRN COSTA RICA. VERY MINIMAL HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM 0226 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR SW PART OF THE SEA S OF 15N W OF THE FRONT. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 0228 UTC SHOWED 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE FAR SRN WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF S AMERICA. ELSEWHERE WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE...WITH DIRECTIONS FROM THE NE-E IN THE 10-15 KT IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...AND SE W OF 84W. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL REACH A PSN FROM NEAR EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NICARAGUA BY LATE THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE AND PUERTO RICO TO THE DEEP SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. TRADES OVER THE FAR SRN EASTERN SECTION REMAIN AT 15-20 KT THROUGH THU MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. YET A THIRD COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE MORNING ...AND REACH FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS BY LATE TUE...FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR NRN COSTA RICA ON WED...THEN LIKE THE RECENT ONES ALSO WEAKEN FROM THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN SW TO NEAR 15N76W LATE WED INTO THU. IT APPEARS THAT NW TO N WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... THE 0228 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWED NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT W OF THE COLD FRONT ANALYZED AT 0600 UTC FROM 26N65W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE FAR SE WATERS BY EARLY THIS EVENING WHILE WEAKENING. SLY GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE NRN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON AND EXITS THE FAR NE PORTION TUE MORNING AS A DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH. HIGH PRES RETURNS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MON THROUGH EARLY TUE WITH YET ANOTHER LOW AND STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON TUE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUE THROUGH LATE WED. THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM 26N65W TO HISPANIOLA BY LATE ON WED...AND FROM 22N61W TO VICINITY U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THU AND FRI. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NRN WATERS MON AND TUE BEFORE WEAKENING. S TO SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE NRN WATERS AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT ON WED WITH SEAS POSSIBLY UP TO 9 FT IN A N SWELL. WARNINGS... ATLC... .GALE WARNING N OF 27N TUE THROUGH WED...AMZ080 CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING N OF 26N...GMZ084 AND GMZ086 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE