000 AGXX40 KNHC 270730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO 23N97W WHILE WEAKER HIGH PRES HAS SHIFTED SE TO OVER S FLORIDA. LATEST W GULF BUOYS SHOW RAPIDLY INCREASING N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS OF 25-30 KT...AND SEAS ALREADY BUILDING UP TO 10 FT. TO THE E OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE LIGHT E-SE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NOTED IN THE NE PORTION OF THE GULF. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL WINTER SO FAR...THE VERY PRONOUNCED SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO ACROSS THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES SYSTEMS AND QUICKLY MOVE THEN ACROSS THE GULF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS WITH THIS FRONT...IT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF REACHING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SW TO YUCATAN PENINSULA BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS FLORIDA AND E INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. MODELS AGAIN...FOR THE MOST PART...AGREE THAT LOW PRES FORMS ON THE FRONT AND QUICKLY TRACKS ESE IN THE GENERAL AREA OF S FLORIDA TONIGHT ...WITH STRONG NW TO N WINDS GAINING MINIMAL GALE FORCE STRENGTH NW OF THE AND IN THE W QUADRANT OF THE LOW IN THE MIDDLE AND E GULF ZONES TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 35 KT TONIGHT. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE TO SLACKEN INTO SUN MORNING...BUT INCREASE AS STRONG SE FLOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF BY THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NW GULF COAST BY EARLY MON MORNING. MODELS FORECAST ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ON MON AS IT QUICKLY SWEEPS E ACROSS THE GULF. MODELS SHOW A FURTHER N TRACK TO THE LOW WHICH LEADS TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS IN UNDER STRONG CAA NW TO N FLOW IN TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF MON AND TUE. SLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON AND TUE...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER BRIEF WITH QUICK PACE OF LOW AND FRONT. ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT NW WINDS OF 20-30 KT WILL ENTER THE WATERS AROUND CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON TUE. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NW GULF WED WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT. CARIBBEAN SEA... PER THE 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LEEWARD ISLANDS W TO NEAR THE SRN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. A HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0130 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED A SWATH OF NE 20 KT WINDS THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE SPREADING SW TO NEAR 16N71W. ELSEWHERE...WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT IN THE 10-15 KT AND NE-E IN DIRECTION EXCEPT SE TO THE W OF 84W. THE ABOVE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 15N77W BY SUN MORNING. IT WILL THEN DISSIPATE FROM FROM NEAR PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 13N75W BY SUN NIGHT. NE-E FLOW OF 10-15 KT RETURNS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH TRADES INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 15-20 KT OVER THE SRN WATERS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUE AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. YET A THIRD COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY TUE...AND REACH FROM FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS BY LATE TUE...AND FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NRN COSTA RICA ON WED MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT NW TO N WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH POSSIBLE 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... AS PER LATEST ASCAT DATA FROM NEAR 0200 UTC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 23N65W TO THE EAST COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ALONG THE FRONT N OF 21N. THE ASCAT PASS SHOWED NW WINDS OF 20-30 KT W OF FRONT AND N OF 25N...WITH A SWATH OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-34 KT OVER THE FAR NRN WATERS N OF ABOUT 29N AND E OF 75W. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED S TO SW WINDS OF 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT JUST NE OF THE AREA. BASED ON THIS WILL HEADLINE GALE WARNING FOR W OF THE FRONT TO 75W AND N OF 29N. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING E OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS IT THEN SHIFTS E OF THE AREA ON SAT ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES TO EMERGE INTO THE WESTERN WATERS ONCE EXITING THE GULF OF MEXICO AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. LATEST MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN SHOWING STRONG SLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW...WITH GFS BEING THE STRONGEST WITH SLY WINDS OF GALE FORCE. EVEN THE REGIONAL NAM HINTS AT THIS SCENARIO. SO BASED ON THIS...WILL MAINTAIN HEADLINE OF POSSIBLE GALE CONDITIONS N OF 26N E OF THE FRONT SAT THROUGH SUN. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY TRACK NE OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WHILE DEEPENING. THIS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT FROM 31N69W TO EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY SUN...THEN FROM 24N65W TO NEAR PUERTO RICO BY LATE SUN INTO MON WHILE WEAKENING. THE FRONT THEN STRADDLES THE NRN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON AND EXITS THE FAR NE PORTION TUE MORNING AS A DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH. HIGH PRES RETURNS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MON THROUGH EARLY TUE WITH YET ANOTHER LOW AND STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON TUE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WEAKENING LOW PRES OF 1010 MB IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE E OF THE AREA NEAR 20N53W WITH A TRAILING TROUGH SW INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC TO NEAR 17N60W. WITH THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING WITH TIME...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH SAT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SW AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE FAR NRN WATERS NEAR 21N/22N IN RESPONSE TO THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE PASSING JUST N OF AREA. WARNINGS... ATLC... .GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE N OF 26N...AMZ080 SAT THROUGH SUN AND TUE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE N OF 28N...GMZ084 SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE