000 AGXX40 KNHC 260823 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 320 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2010 UPDATED WARNINGS SECTION MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE SE LOUISIANA COAST WITH WINDS VEERING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA PER LATEST BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SUBSIDING SEAS ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL...WITH HIGHEST SEAS OF 7 FT OVER THE SE PORTION AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL WINTER SO FAR...THE VERY PRONOUNCED SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO ACROSS THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MORE SERIES OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES SYSTEMS AND QUICKLY MOVE THEN ACROSS THE GULF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST BEING A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. SLY RETURN FLOW IS CURRENTLY INCREASING OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF AS REVEALED BY THE LATEST BUOY REPORTS. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR SE LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT WITH JUST ABOUT ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE REGIONAL NAM HINTING AT LOW PRES FORMING ON THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF. THE FRONT THEN REACHES FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SW TO YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND PUSH E OF AREA SAT NIGHT. MODELS FOR THE MOST PART AGREE THAT THE LOW TRACKS ESE ACROSS S FLORIDA SAT NIGHT...WITH STRONG NW TO N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW. THE 00 UTC GFS MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS MORE IN SYNC WITH OTHER MODELS IN SHOWING MAXIMUM WINDS UP TO 30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AND IN RELATION WITH THE LOW...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH SUN MORNING...BUT INCREASE AS STRONG SE FLOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NW GULF COAST BY MON MORNING. YET MODELS FORECAST ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ON MON AS IT QUICKLY SWEEPS E ACROSS THE GULF. MODELS SHOW A FURTHER N TRACK TO THE LOW WHICH COULD IMPLY GALE FORCE WINDS FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN GULF AND PERHAPS A SMALL PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF MON AND TUE DUE TO TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES TO THE NE. THE LOW TRACKS INLAND N CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUE WITH THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING SW THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND E OF THE GULF BY TUE AFTERNOON. NW WINDS OF 20-30 KT SHOULD FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DIMINISHING W OF 90W TUE AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... PER THE 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SW TO NEAR 11N79W. A HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0200 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AREA. IT ALSO SHOWED LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SE OF THE FRONT TO NEAR 68W. THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 15N72W THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT MORNING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH ON FRI AS THE COLDER AIRMASS BECOMES MODIFIED OVER THE MUCH WARMER CARIBBEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL BECOME NE-E 10-15 KT OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN THROUGH SAT...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEHIND THE THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SAT AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS SAT NIGHT...AND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 15N77W BY SUN MORNING...AND DISSIPATE FROM FROM NEAR PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 13N75W BY SUN NIGHT. NE-E FLOW OF 10-15 KT RETURNS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH TRADES INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 15-20 KT OVER THE SRN WATERS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUE AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. YET A THIRD COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY TUE...AND REACH FROM FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS BY LATE TUE FOLLOWED BY NW TO N WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... AS PER LATEST ASCAT DATA FROM NEAR 0200 UTC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 23N65W TO THE EAST COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ALONG THE FRONT N OF 21N. THE ASCAT PASS SHOWED NW WINDS OF 20-30 KT W OF FRONT AND N OF 25N...WITH A SWATH OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-34 KT OVER THE FAR NRN WATERS N OF ABOUT 29N AND E OF 75W. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED S TO SW WINDS OF 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT JUST NE OF THE AREA. BASED ON THIS WILL HEADLINE GALE WARNING FOR W OF THE FRONT TO 75W AND N OF 29N. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING E OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS E OF THE AREA ON SAT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES EMERGE INTO THE WESTERN WATERS AFTER EXITING THE GULF OF MEXICO AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. LATEST MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN SHOWING STRONG SLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW...WITH GFS BEING THE STRONGEST WITH SLY WINDS OF GALE FORCE. EVEN THE REGIONAL NAM HINTS AT THIS SCENARIO. SO BASED ON THIS...WILL MAINTAIN HEADLINE OF POSSIBLE GALE CONDITIONS N OF 26N E OF THE FRONT SAT THROUGH SUN. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY TRACK NE OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WHILE DEEPENING. THIS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT FROM 31N69W TO EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY SUN...THEN FROM 24N65W TO NEAR PUERTO RICO BY LATE SUN INTO MON WHILE WEAKENING. THE FRONT THEN STRADDLES THE NRN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON AND EXITS THE FAR NE PORTION TUE MORNING AS A DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH. HIGH PRES RETURNS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MON THROUGH EARLY TUE WITH YET ANOTHER LOW AND STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON TUE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WEAKENING LOW PRES OF 1010 MB IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE E OF THE AREA NEAR 20N53W WITH A TRAILING TROUGH SW INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC TO NEAR 17N60W. WITH THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING WITH TIME...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH SAT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SW AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE FAR NRN WATERS NEAR 21N/22N ON IN RESPONSE TO THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE PASSING JUST N OF AREA. WARNINGS...UPDATED ATLC... .GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE N OF 26N...AMZ080 SAT THROUGH SUN AND TUE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE N OF 27N...GMZ086 SAT AND TUE. 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