000 AGXX40 KNHC 260730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE SE LOUISIANA COAST WITH WINDS VEERING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA PER LATEST BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SUBSIDING SEAS ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL...WITH HIGHEST SEAS OF 7 FT OVER THE SE PORTION AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. AS HAS BEEN ALL WINTER SO FAR...THE VERY PRONOUNCED SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MORE SERIES OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES SYSTEMS AND QUICKLY MOVE THEN ACROSS THE GULF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST BEING A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. SLY RETURN FLOW IS CURRENTLY INCREASING OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF AS REVEALED BY THE LATEST BUOY REPORTS. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR SE LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT WITH JUST ABOUT ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE REGIONAL NAM HINTING AT LOW PRES FORMING ON THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF. THE FRONT THEN REACHES FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SW TO YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND PUSH E OF AREA SAT NIGHT. MODELS FOR THE MOST PART AGREE THAT THE LOW TRACKS ESE ACROSS S FLORIDA SAT NIGHT...WITH STRONG NW TO N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW. THE 00 UTC GFS MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS MORE IN SYNC WITH OTHER MODELS IN SHOWING MAXIMUM WINDS UP TO 30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AND IN RELATION WITH THE LOW...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IN TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH SUN MORNING...BUT INCREASE AS STRONG SE FLOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NW GULF COAST BY MON MORNING. YET MODELS FORECAST ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ON MON AS IT QUICKLY SWEEPS E ACROSS THE GULF. MODELS SHOW A FURTHER N TRACK TO THIS LOW WHICH COULD IMPLY GALE FORCE WINDS FOR A PORTION OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF MON AND TUE DUE TO TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES TO THE NE. THE LOW TRACKS INLAND N CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUE WITH THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING SW THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND E OF THE GULF BY TUE AFTERNOON. NW WINDS OF 20-30 KT SHOULD FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DIMINISHING W OF 90W TUE AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO CENTRAL PANAMA WITH RECENT ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES CAPTURING NW TO N WINDS OF 20-30 KT W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO THE E AND WILL REACH FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA BY EARLY FRI WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH ON FRI AS THE COLDER AIRMASS BECOMES MODIFIED OVER THE MUCH WARMER CARIBBEAN WATERS. NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE BASIN FRI NIGHT... WITH THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT EVENING. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS SAT NIGHT THEN FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO WESTERN PANAMA BY EARLY SUN... EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUN NIGHT. NE-E FLOW OF 10-15 KT RETURNS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH TRADES INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 15-20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ON TUE REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NE NICARAGUA BY TUE NIGHT. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... LOW PRES HAS SHIFTED E OF 55W TODAY TO NEAR 23.5N50W WITH A TRAILING TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC TO NEAR THE ISLAND OF GUADELOUPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WHILE THE STRONGER WINDS THAT WERE OCCURRING OVER THE FAR E PART OF THE WATERS HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N69W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A BROKEN LINE OF MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS IS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS DECREASING AS IT MARCHES TO THE E. RECENT WINDSAT AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES AS WELL AS METAR OBS IN THE BAHAMAS AND BUOY OBS ALL INDICATE NW WINDS OF 25-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE ASCAT PASS ALSO CAPTURING S TO SW WINDS OF 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NDBC BUOY 41047 POSITIONED NEAR 27.5N71.5W REPORTED S-SW WINDS OF 30-40 KT FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING WITH A PEAK GUST OF 45 KT AT 12 UTC. THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT N OF 26N WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N65W TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS EVENING THEN FROM 31N59W TO THE MONA PASSAGE EARLY FRI WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT RUNS INTO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN S OF 31N E OF 55W. MEANWHILE A PARADE OF TROUGHS WILL ROTATE AROUND LOW PRES WELL N-NE OF THE REGION FRI INTO SAT WITH W-NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT PERSISTING N OF 29N THROUGH THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WILL SHIFT E ON SAT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVE SAT EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING AN AREA OF STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW AND HAVE THUS ADDED A GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE HEADLINE N OF 26N E OF THE FRONT SAT THROUGH SUN. THE LOW WILL PUSH N OF 31N WITH A TRAILING FRONT REACHING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 31N71W TO EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY SUN THEN FROM 31N58W TO THE MONA PASSAGE BY EARLY MON. HIGH PRES RETURNS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MON THROUGH EARLY TUE WITH YET ANOTHER LOW AND STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON TUE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .GALE WARNING...AMZ080 THROUGH TONIGHT. .GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...AMZ080 SAT THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE