000 AGXX40 KNHC 251806 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST THU FEB 25 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E AS HIGH PRES EXPANDS FROM THE W GULF TO THE E. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE W GULF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH SE OFF TEXAS FRI NIGHT. LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION AND STRENGTH IS UNCLEAR. LATEST GUIDANCE FCSTS A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 27N86W WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY SAT. LATEST GFS RUN DEPICTS AN AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS AROUND THE LOW ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES RESULTING IN A HIGHER WIND FORECAST SO WILL CAP WINDS AT 30 KT FOR NOW. THE FRONT AND LOW PUSH E-SE OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES RETURNS BY EARLY SUN. THIS CYCLE REPEATS ITSELF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENING IN THE W GULF AND A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF TEXAS ON MON WITH ANOTHER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS NEXT FRONT AS IT MOVES E. THIS NEXT FRONT AND LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF AND PUSH E OF THE AREA BY LATE TUE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO CENTRAL PANAMA WITH RECENT ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES CAPTURING NW TO N WINDS OF 20-30 KT W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO THE E AND WILL REACH FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA BY EARLY FRI WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH ON FRI AS THE COLDER AIRMASS BECOMES MODIFIED OVER THE MUCH WARMER CARIBBEAN WATERS. NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE BASIN FRI NIGHT... WITH THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT EVENING. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS SAT NIGHT THEN FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO WESTERN PANAMA BY EARLY SUN... EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUN NIGHT. NE-E FLOW OF 10-15 KT RETURNS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH TRADES INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 15-20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ON TUE REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NE NICARAGUA BY TUE NIGHT. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... LOW PRES HAS SHIFTED E OF 55W TODAY TO NEAR 23.5N50W WITH A TRAILING TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC TO NEAR THE ISLAND OF GUADELOUPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WHILE THE STRONGER WINDS THAT WERE OCCURRING OVER THE FAR E PART OF THE WATERS HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N69W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A BROKEN LINE OF MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS IS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS DECREASING AS IT MARCHES TO THE E. RECENT WINDSAT AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES AS WELL AS METAR OBS IN THE BAHAMAS AND BUOY OBS ALL INDICATE NW WINDS OF 25-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE ASCAT PASS ALSO CAPTURING S TO SW WINDS OF 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NDBC BUOY 41047 POSITIONED NEAR 27.5N71.5W REPORTED S-SW WINDS OF 30-40 KT FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING WITH A PEAK GUST OF 45 KT AT 12 UTC. THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT N OF 26N WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N65W TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS EVENING THEN FROM 31N59W TO THE MONA PASSAGE EARLY FRI WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT RUNS INTO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN S OF 31N E OF 55W. MEANWHILE A PARADE OF TROUGHS WILL ROTATE AROUND LOW PRES WELL N-NE OF THE REGION FRI INTO SAT WITH W-NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT PERSISTING N OF 29N THROUGH THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WILL SHIFT E ON SAT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVE SAT EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING AN AREA OF STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW AND HAVE THUS ADDED A GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE HEADLINE N OF 26N E OF THE FRONT SAT THROUGH SUN. THE LOW WILL PUSH N OF 31N WITH A TRAILING FRONT REACHING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 31N71W TO EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY SUN THEN FROM 31N58W TO THE MONA PASSAGE BY EARLY MON. HIGH PRES RETURNS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MON THROUGH EARLY TUE WITH YET ANOTHER LOW AND STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON TUE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .GALE WARNING...AMZ080 THROUGH TONIGHT. .GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...AMZ080 SAT THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY