000 AGXX40 KNHC 251112 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 610 AM EST THU FEB 25 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HAS PICKED UP N PORTION OF COLD FRONT AND MOVED IT ALONG STEADILY ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH THE STRAITS AND NW CUBA AND NOW INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN. STRONG NLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GALES STILL THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND POSSIBLY OFF NW COAST OF CUBA. PEMEX BUOY BMO HAD REPORTED SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 15 FT AS OF 0500 UTC WHILE BUOY 42003 IN THE ERN GULF HAS PEAKED AT 11 FT ALREADY. A 0020 UTC ALTIMETER PASS ACROSS THE ERN GULF MEASURED 12-15 FT SEAS EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITH A MAX OF 18 FT NEAR 25N86.5W...WILL ABOVE WWIII GUIDANCE...AND SUGGESTING GALES BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDING A BIT FARTHER N AND NE THEN WE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY ABATE TODAY AS FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SE...DROPPING BELOW 20 KT W OF 90W JUST RECENTLY AND ACROSS ALL BUT THE SE GULF BY 18Z TODAY. WINDS WILL VEER QUICKLY AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE W GULF. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI EVENING AND WILL REACH FROM NEAR SE LOUISIANA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE N PORTION OF THE FRONT BY EARLY SAT THEN MOVES THE LOW E INTO W CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH THE FRONT STRETCHING TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SAT AFTERNOON THEN EXITING THE ARE SAT EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL RETURN BEHIND THESE FEATURES BY LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS CYCLE REPEATS ITSELF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING OVER THE W GULF SUN AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF ON MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH WAS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM THE E TIP OF CUBA S-SW TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF SE NICARAGUA...WITH NUMEROUS DEEP CONVECTION FIRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH FROM JUST SW OF JAMAICA TO THE SE BAHAMAS. GALES AND VERY SQUALLY WEATHER WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS AREA OF WEATHER AND WILL SHIFT E AND NE WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE ATLC THROUGH TONIGHT. GALES WERE LIKELY OCCURRING BRIEFLY BEHIND THIS TROUGH NW INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BUT SHOULD ABATE TO 30 KT OR LESS VERY SHORTLY AND GALE WARNING FOR THIS AREA TO EXPIRE AT 1200 UTC. COLD FRONT WILL COLDER DRIER AIR WAS FROM W CENTRAL CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS AND MOVING SE. A 0345 UTC ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED 12 FT SEAS AS FAR S AS 18N83W...WHICH WAS WELL AHEAD OF THE TRUE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND REACH HISPANIOLA TO SE COSTA RICA TONIGHT THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FROM PUERTO RICO TO COASTAL PANAMA FRI MORNING...FINALLY LOOSING IDENTITY ACROSS THE NE CARIB FRI EVENING. WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL CONTINUE 20-30 KT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS FLOW BECOME N TO NE. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AHEAD OF PRE FRONTAL TROUGH EXCEPT N OF 17N THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE SW TO S FLOW OF 20-25 KT IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ATLC E OF 60W WITH TROUGH TRAILING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL LEEWARDS TO S OF PUERTO RICO...WHERE MODERATE NELY FLOW WAS BUILDING INTO THE BASIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT TO MODERATE AND VARIABLE THROUGH FRI AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARIES. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EASTWARD WHILE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT THEN WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATES ON SUN. A BRIEF SHOT OF NW WINDS AT 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH THIS NEXT FRONT. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTER IS OVER THE ATLC BASIN E OF 65W WITH 1004 MB LOW NEAR 31N55W WITH TROUGH ARCHING SE THEN S-SW TO A SECOND LOW PRES NEAR 22N55.5W 1009 MB WITH TROUGH ARCHING SW TO 18N59W THEN TO 17N66W. THESE TWO LOWS WILL MOVE TO THE NE-E WITH WINDS OF 25-30 KT AROUND BOTH LOWS EVENTUALLY MERGING INTO ONE DOMINATE LOW CENTER WELL E OF 55W TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED NW TO WLY FLOW OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THIS COMPLEX TO 63W...WITH SMALL AREAS OF 30 KT WINDS IN WRN SEMICIRCLE OF BOTH LOWS. MEANWHILE THE STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A 999 MB LOW NEAR 31N75W TO W CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N81W. STRONG NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HAS BUILT SEAS OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA COAST TO 12 FT ALREADY PER BUOY 41010 WITH WINDS JUST UNDER GALES. AS THIS FLOW BLASTS THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TYPICALLY TRANQUIL SEAS IN THE LEE OF THE ISLAND CHAIN WILL BUILD 5 TO 8 FT IN NW SEAS. THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL LIFT N-NE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY OFF OF HATTERAS...KEEPING WLY FLOW NEAR 30 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY ABATE W OF THE ADVANCING FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE GULF. GALES E OF THE FRONT IN SLY FLOW EXTENDS AT LEAST 240 NM E AND WILL SHIFT E AND NE WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING NE OUT OF THE AREA. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA. THE FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM 31N64W TO THE MONA PASSAGE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE E OF 60W FRI. LARGE NW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS 10-16 FT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC LATE THROUGH FRI WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKING AROUND 18 FT NEAR 31N. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ATLC WATERS SAT NIGHT REACHING FROM NEAR 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA THEN FROM 31N65W TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA SUN AFTERNOON AND E OF 55W ON MON. A LOW CENTER MAY FORM ALONG THIS FRONT WITH A SMALL AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON ACROSS THE FAR NE PORTION. WARNINGS... ATLC... .GALE WARNING...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... .GALE WARNING...AMZ082 THROUGH 1200 UTC. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING...GMZ084 THROUGH 1200 UTC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING