000 AGXX40 KNHC 241915 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EST WED FEB 24 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 24N90W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 18.5N92W. GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW S OF 27N AND W-NW OF THE FRONT WITH NUMEROUS BUOYS AND NEARSHORE METAR OBS REPORTING 35-45 KT WINDS. THESE HIGH WINDS WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF MAINLY NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THU AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE GULF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE W GULF. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI EVENING AND WILL REACH FROM NEAR SE LOUISIANA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE N PORTION OF THE FRONT BY EARLY SAT THEN MOVES THE LOW TOWARD SW FLORIDA WITH THE FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND JUST SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY SAT EVENING WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING BEHIND THESE FEATURES BY LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS CYCLE REPEATS ITSELF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING OVER THE W GULF SUN AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF ON MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN STRETCHING FROM THE FAR WESTERN TIP OF CUBA THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF HONDURAS WITH AN EMBEDDED 1006 MB LOW NEAR 20N85W. A COMPLEX OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. OTHERWISE THE SIGNIFICANT WINDS REMAIN NW OF THE BASIN IN THE GULF BEHIND A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT WILL PUSH SE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH BRIEF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR EASTERN CUBA TO NE COSTA RICA BY EARLY THU THEN FROM CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO CENTRAL PANAMA BY THU EVENING AND FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO EASTERN PANAMA THU NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA AS THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GET FUNNELED UP AGAINST THE TERRAIN ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WARNING AT THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH FRI. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EASTWARD WHILE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT THEN WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE ON SUN. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTER IS OVER THE ATLC BASIN WITH A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N60W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 23N61W AND ANOTHER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE SW-W ALONG THE N COASTS OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE TWO LOWS WILL MOVE TO THE NE-E WITH WINDS OF 25-30 KT AROUND BOTH LOWS EVENTUALLY MERGING INTO ONE DOMINATE LOW CENTER WELL E OF 55W. MEANWHILE A DECAYING COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR 31N64W TO SE FLORIDA WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT JUST NW OF THERE. THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT WITH STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 29N AND E OF THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH THU AND A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA. THE FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM 31N65W TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THU EVENING THEN E OF 55W BY FRI EVENING. MEANWHILE LARGE NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE SW N ATLC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKING AROUND 18 FT FROM 30N TO 31N. HIGH PRES OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO RIDGES EASTWARD INTO THE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE A REINFORCING TROUGH STRADDLES ALONG 30N FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE ATLC WATERS SAT NIGHT REACHING FROM NEAR 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA THEN FROM 31N65W TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA SUN AFTERNOON AND E OF 55W ON MON. A LOW CENTER MAY FORM ALONG THIS FRONT WITH A SMALL AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON ACROSS THE FAR NE PORTION. WARNINGS... ATLC... .GALE WARNING...AMZ080 TONIGHT THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING...GMZ080-082 THIS AFTERNOON. .GALE WARNING...GMZ084 THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY