000 AGXX40 KNHC 241059 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 558 AM EST WED FEB 24 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED STRUNG OUT NEARLY W TO E ACROSS THE SE GULF FROM NEAR NAPLES TO A 1011 MB LOW ALONG A FRONTAL WAVE ON THE SECOND FRONT...NEAR 25N92.5W. SECOND FRONT IS NOTHING MORE THAN A REINFORCING BOUNDARY...BUT NONE THE LESS IS A CONSIDERABLE BOUNDARY IN TERMS OF WINDS AND COLDER AIR. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DENSE LOW TO MID CLOUD DECK FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO THE LOW THEN SW INTO THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTEROMETER WINDS...BUOY AND SHIP OBS BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT SHOWED N-NW WINDS 30-40 KT...WITH FREQUENT GUST AROUND 40 BEING REPORTED BY SHIPS AND BUOYS...WITH SEAS LIKELY BUILDING TO 15 FT ALREADY. N OF 27N NE TO N WINDS OF 20-30 KT WERE DEPICTED BY SCATTEROMETER PASSES THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TODAY WITH GALES S OF 27N SPREADING S AND E BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 90W...AND THEN BRIEFLY AS THE FRONT BLASTS ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...GALES WILL BE SEEN DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A SHORT 4-6 HOUR PERIOD OR SO. ALTHOUGH WE HATE THE YO-YO EFFECT...HAVE REINSTATED A BRIEF GALE FOR THE S CENTRAL GULF INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FOR THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE GULF TONIGHT WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE...DROPPING LESS THAN 20 KT ACROSS THE NW GULF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE FINALLY ENDING ACROSS THE NW COAST OF CUBA FRI MORNING. NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EXIT THE NW COASTS LATE FRI EVENING WITH 20 KT SLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... TRADES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ABATE ACROSS ALL BUT THE E PART OF THE BASIN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT W OF 68W. THIS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIB THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY NW AND INCREASE 20-30 KT...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. DUE TO THE COLD AIR ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT AND THE WARM WATER TEMPS...THE AREA OF GALES COULD SHIFT S AND SE WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT...AND AFFECT THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA...AS WELL AS OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE AND HONDURAS. HOWEVER...IF WE DO NOT GET A GOOD SCATTEROMETER PASS TO VERIFY THIS...WE MAY NEVER KNOW THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION THERE. REGARDLESS...THE FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND REACH FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO COSTA RICA BY MIDDAY THU...WITH NLY SWELLS BUILDING AND PROPAGATING INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. PEAK SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE LIKELY TO REACH AROUND 12 FT TONIGHT W OF 84W...AND UP TO 16 FT IN THE NLY FLOW AGAINST THE YUCATAN CURRENT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO WRN PANAMA FRI MORNING...WITH WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING A DIMINISHING TREND FRI...FALLING BELOW 20 KT EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED AREAS BY FRI EVENING. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... VERY UNUSUAL PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT NOT ATYPICAL OF SIGNIFICANT EL NINO WINTERS FOR THE BASIN. FRONT WAS NEARLY INDISCERNIBLE FROM S FLORIDA NE INTO A LOW APPROACHING BERMUDA...WHILE AHEAD OF IT S/W'S EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG SRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAVE INDUCED A PAIR OF LLVL VORTS AS SUGGESTED BY STLT AND OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. ONE NEAR 31N63W AND A SECOND NEAR 23.5N63.5W...BOTH MOVING OFF TO THE E-NE EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG AND DEEP LAYERED WLY FLOW ALOFT. TROUGHS CONNECT BOTH OF THESE FEATURES...WITH THIS PATTERN DIFFICULT TO DESCRIBE IN THE RECENT MARINE FORECASTS AND SYNOPSIS. THIS DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E-NE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOPING A FULL BLOWN GALE WITH THE SRN LOW BY FRI MORNING NW OF THE CAPE VERDES. SLY FLOW TO THE E OF THIS SYSTEM WAS DEPICTED BY SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVERNIGHT WITH SW TO S WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND AREAS OF 30 KT IN THE ERN SEMICIRCLES OF BOTH LOWS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE INDICATED 20-25 KT WINDS FOR A FEW DAYS NOW BUT WE HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT RELUCTANT TO BUY INTO IT FULLY. GULF OF MEXICO FRONT WILL BLAST OFF OF THE N FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING AND REACH FROM NEAR 30N70W TO E CENTRAL CUBA THU MORNING. S-SW FLOW OF 30-35 KT IS EXPECTED N OF 26N E OF THE FRONT BY EARLY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 28N. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BOTH W AND E OF THIS FRONT...HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF TO 30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WILL WAIT FOR ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE DROPPING THIS GALE. STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLC W OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRI MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH...AS REMAINS OF WEAKENING FROM MOVE THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE NRN LEEWARDS THIS WEEKEND. A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT SAT EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AS THE NEXT GULF OF MEXICO FRONT MOVES E ACROSS THE REGION. GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A "GORILLA" IN THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT COULD REEK HAVOC ALONG THE COASTS OF THE SE AND MID ATLC STATES...AS AFFECT ALL THE AREA WATERS. STAY TUNED. WARNINGS... ATLC... .GALE WARNING AMZ080-082-084. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING