000 AGXX40 KNHC 230828 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 328 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SE THROUGH MOST OF THE GULF...BUT ALREADY BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE WRN GULF ALONG 23N. CURRENTLY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS N FLORIDA AND EXITS W COAST NOT FAR N OF TAMPA BAY THEN EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 23N90W AND THEN WLY ALONG ABOUT 23N THEN W-NW INTO THE MEXICAN COAST AND INTO A DEVELOPING LOW. FLOW BEHIND FRONT HAS ALREADY BEGINNING TO VEER NE TO E TO THE W OF 90W. FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER THAN INVOF NAPLES ALONG THE FLORIDA W COAST BY MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE NEXT REINFORCING FRONT...WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SIGNIFICANT AND RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS DROPS INTO THE NW GULF. NLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SMALL AREA OF GALES OFF OF THE UPPER MEXICAN COAST BY 00 UTC WED. COLD AIR AND GALES WILL DIVE QUICKLY S BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS...INCREASING TO 35-40 KT TONIGHT AND EXPANDING TO S OF 25N W OF 92W BY WED MORNING. FRONT THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ERN GULF AND YUCATAN AND MOST OF FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH GALES REACHING THE CENTRAL GULF AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. GALES WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE DAMMING FLOW W OF THE FRONT ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST...AND THEN WITHIN 120-150 NM BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS THE GULF. OTHERWISE...N-NW FLOW OF 25-30 KT IS EXPECTED...BUILDING SEAS QUICKLY TO 12-18 FT BEHIND THE FRONT BY WED MORNING...WITH WWIII SHOWING PEAK SEAS NEAR 20 FT IN THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WED EVENING. 12 FT SEAS WILL SPREAD SE INTO THE FAR SE GULF BY THU AFTERNOON AND INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. CARIBBEAN SEA... TRADES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ABATE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH FLOW VEERING FURTHER IN THE W AND NW CARIB...AS THE LLVL WEAKNESS OR PERTURBATION HAS MOVED E THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A 0250 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED S TO S-SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE NW CARIB BETWEEN 74W AND 80W WHERE SEAS HAVE HAD TO BUILD TO AT LEST 6-7 FT IN THE SRN WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ALONG THE SE COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE 24 HOURS AND BECOME SLY ACROSS THE NE CARIB AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP WELL N OF PUERTO RICO. WEAK TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN CARIB OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF AND YIELD LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THERE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BY WED EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE NW CARIB...WITH PEAK SEAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OF 5 FT FORECAST IN THE SE CARIB THEN...WITH ONLY 2-3 FT SEAS OFF OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THEN FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR THE HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER AROUND MIDNIGHT WED AND THEN WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NW PANAMA BY MIDDAY THU. STRONG NW-N FLOW THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE WRN CARIB OF 20-30 KT WILL GENERATE LARGE SEAS TO 12 FT AND HIGHER ALL THE WAY TO COASTAL HONDURAS THU...WITH N-NW SWELL REACHING COSTA RICA TO COLOMBIA FRI AND EARLY SAT. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... VERY UNUSUAL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT NOT ATYPICAL OF SIGNIFICANT EL NINO WINTERS FOR THE BASIN. ATLC RIDGE HAS WEAKENED THUS FAR TO A NARROW RIDGE ALONG 23N...WITH WLY'S THE N AND TRADES TO THE S. STRONG SRN STREAM JET STREAM WILL ERODE THIS WEAK RIDGE EVEN FURTHER IN THE COMING WEEK AND ALLOW FOR E TO E-NE SYSTEMS TO EXIT THE GULF AND MOVE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. CURRENT COLD FRONT MOVING OFF OF NE COAST OF FLORIDA WITH STRONG SLY FLOW OF 25-30 KT AHEAD OF IT PER EVENING SCATTEROMETER PASSES AND SEVERAL SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS. SEAS W OF 75W AND N OF 27N HAD BUILT TO 10-12 FT PER AN 0230 UTC ALTIMETER PASS...WHILE FARTHER TO THE W...BUOY 41010 REPORTED 9 FT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E PAST 70W TODAY...N OF 27N...WHILE THE SRN PORTION TRAILS OFF AND BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS SRN FLORIDA...WHILE THE PERTURBATION MOVING E ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ATTM EVOLVES INTO A SURFACE LOW AND MOVES E-NE...DRAGGING A SURFACE TROUGH BEHIND IT ACROSS THE SRN BAHAMAS. S OF THIS TROUGH SW TO S FLOW OF 20 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE LOW MOVES E OF 65W. THE NEXT FRONT...MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF WINDS AND COLD AIR...IS EXPECTED TO EXIT NRN FLORIDA WED AFTERNOON-EVENING AND THEN MOVE SE TO NEAR 30N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY THU MORNING. A DEEPENING LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIFT N OUT OF THE AREA AND PRODUCE STRONG SLY FLOW E OF THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME...WITH 25-30 KT OF NW FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT AND THU. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF 3 VERY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS OF SWEEP E ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE SW N ATLC OVER THE NEXT WEEK...AND WILL EACH BRING MAJOR MARINE IMPACTS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .GALE WARNING AMZ080-082-084. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING