000 AGXX40 KNHC 210825 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 325 AM EST SUN FEB 21 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... THE WEAK HIGH RIDGING ACROSS THE NRN GULF PAST 24 HOURS HAS SHIFTED NE AND OFFSHORE OF GA/SC COASTS...WITH 1011 MB LOW ACROSS THE NW GULF JUST OFF THE COAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI...AND WARM FRONT EXTENDING E TO NEAR 90W THEN ARCHING SE TO NEAR 24N86W. E-SE FLOW OF 20-25 KT PREVAILS WITHIN 120-150 NM N OF THIS WARM FRONT AND SHOULD BE BUILDING SEAS IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE. THE LOW AND FRONT ARE FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY N THIS MORNING...WITH WARM FRONT TRAILING EWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF...THEN BE PICKED UP BY NEXT S/W ALOFT AND STRETCHED OUT TOWARD THE NE TONIGHT THROUGH MON. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH...IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE CONTRAST AND WINDS...IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY EWD FROM MOBILE BAY TO BAY OF CAMPECHE BY NOON ON MON...WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SHOW VERY ACTIVE WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL FOR SQUALLS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY N OF 27N AS IT SHIFTS E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI MON THROUGH MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE TRUE COLD FRONT AND DRIER COLD AIR WILL LAG BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BY ABOUT 150 NM AND WILL GENERALLY BE BENIGN IN TERMS OF WEATHER. BOTH BOUNDARIES SWEEP E ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO FLORIDA MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING LEAVING A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH STRETCHED NEARLY W TO E ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 23.5N TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE FRONT PRODUCING N TO NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT N OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY VEERING E TO E-NE JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY. AS THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...A NEW SHORTWAVE SYSTEM DROPS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. AND THEN DIGS SE ACROSS TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. THIS IS FORECAST TO INDUCE A REAL LLVL SURGE INTO THE NW GULF THAT WILL DIVE S INTO THE SW GULF AND FORCE THE LINGERING FRONTAL TROUGH INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NW GULF TUE NIGHT S OF 27N AND SPREADING S AND SW INTO THE SW GULF WED AS A SURFACE LOW PRES REFLECTION OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DEEPENS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION HERE AND NOW IS SHOWING 35-40 KT IN THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING GALES WILL END BY WED MORNING WITH 25-30 KT N-NWLY FLOW BUILDING ACROSS ENTIRE GULF WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FRONT IS FORCED INTO NW CARIBBEAN. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL ATLC SW ACROSS THE EXTREME NE CARIB...TO NEAR 17N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM S AND 120 NM N OF THE BOUNDARY. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES THIS EVENING SHOWED 10-15 KT WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WATERS THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. EVENING SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED STILL A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT TRADES ACROSS THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND MODEST AREA OF 25-30 KT S OF 13N OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WHERE SEAS WERE MEASURED 12 FT BY A 0050 UTC ALTIMETER PASS. WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS BLASTS ACROSS THE GULF AND THE HIGH ACROSS THE WRN ATLC SHIFTS E. WINDS ACROSS ALL BUT S PORTIONS OF THE BASIN WILL GRADUALLY VEER ELY TODAY AND THEN MORE SELY MON AND SE TO S TUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER IT REACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE. THEN...LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY EARLY WED ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM DISCUSSED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NE THROUGH WESTERN CUBA WED NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING FROM THE NW BAHAMAS TO N COAST OF HONDURAS WED NIGHT AND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR THE HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER THU NIGHT. THE WEAK LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE FORCED E-NE ALONG THE FRONT AND THROUGH THE SRN BAHAMAS THU...AIDED BY A STRONG SRN JETSTREAM. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT SW TO WLY FLOW OF 20-25 KT TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES ALONG 24N...N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... LARGE LOW PRES SYSTEM ACROSS THE NW ATLC EXTENDS INTO FAR N AND NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE EVENING SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED GALES BORDERING THESE WATERS BETWEEN 54W AND 60W...AND 20-25 KT NW TO WLY FLOW SCRAPING THE AREA N OF 27.5N E OF 65W. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO GENERATE NWLY SWELL AIMED TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND LARGE SEAS ARE NOT PROPAGATING INTO THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS AS PER RECENT FRONTAL SYSTEMS. SWELLS...AND COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS N THROUGH NE OF THE NE CARIBBEAN HAVE BEEN STEADILY FADING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND HAD DROPPED TO 8 FT OR LESS W OF 60W PER BUOY 41044. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE LARGE N ATLC LOW LIFTS OUT AND NEXT S/W MOVES DUE E ACROSS THE W ATLC. W OF 70W...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE N OF 23N BUT ACCELERATE TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE PER EVENING SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THE NEXT GULF OF MEXICO FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RACE E OF FL TUE. THE MODELS AGREE ON DEVELOPING A SURFACE WAVE/LOW ALONG THE FRONT...MOVING E TO E-NE FROM THE SRN BAHAMAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG 24N TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...THE WILL BE FORCED E-NE ALONG THE FRONT...AIDED BY A STRONG SRN JETSTREAM. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT SW TO WLY FLOW OF 20-25 KT TO WORK DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE SRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES ALONG 24N...N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SMALL AREA OF 30 KT WINDS IN THIS SRN SEMICIRCLE AND FUTURE RUNS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THIS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THIS STRONG SRN JETSTREAM LOCATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING EL NINO EVENT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING