000 AGXX40 KNHC 191907 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES HAS SHIFTED NE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING SE ACROSS S FLORIDA AND ANOTHER EXTENDING SW TROUGH HOUSTON TEXAS AND S OF THE RIO GRANDE INTO MEXICO. BUOYS ARE REPORTING 20 KT ELY FLOW IN THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SECOND RIDGE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. 20 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT E BY THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF W-NW INTO THE WEAK LOW IN THE W GULF. A MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE SW U.S. ATTM WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS N TEXAS-OK SUN AND TRANSPORT A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF SUN AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH A PSN FROM NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE MON MORNING...AND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE MON...THEN E OF THE GULF LATE MON NIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG COMPARED TO RECENT ONES. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE 12Z ECMWF. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE FRONT WILL BLAST EWD ACROSS THE GULF AND CROSS FLORIDA MON NIGHT AS THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WHEN A NEW SHORTWAVE SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE CARRIES GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NW GULF OVER NIGHT TUE AND INTO THE SW GULF WED AS A SURFACE LOW PRES REFLECTION OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DEEPENS OVER THE GULF. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A STRONG OUTLIER AND THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE PREFERRED. THE ECMWF ONLY HINTS AT GALES IN THE SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL ATLC SW THROUGH THE TO NE CARIB TO 14N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL FOUND PRIMARILY N OF THE FRONT FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EASTWARD. THE 1504 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NELY WINDS S OF THE FRONT W OF 75W...STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 69W AND 75W. SHIP DGZN NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA REPORTED E WINDS AT 23 KT WITH 12 FT SEAS AT 1800 UTC. THIS IS 6 FT BELOW THE WAVEWATCH. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OVER FL SLIDES E AND WEAKENS...LEAVING THE STRONGEST FLOW CONFINED TO THE SW CARIB OFF OF COLOMBIA. MEANWHILE...MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE NE THE CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT AND SHIFT SE SUN THROUGH WED. THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE GULF MON IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... LARGE LOW PRES SYSTEM ACROSS THE NW ATLC EXTENDS INTO N PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE THE 1500 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED W WINDS TO 30 KT OVER FAR NE WATERS. SHIP C6UG4 REPORTED SEAS TO 19 FT OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 30N59W. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. SEAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ARE AS HIGH AS 16 FT AT THE MOMENT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS LOW LIFTS OUT AND NEXT S/W MOVE DUE E ACROSS THE W ATLC. W OF 70W...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE N OF 23N BUT ACCELERATE TO 20 KT ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA ACCORDING TO SHIP ZCDF4 NEAR 22N77W AT 1800 UTC AND ZCDG4 AT THE SAME POSITION AT 1600 UTC. LONG-PERIOD NWLY HAS PROPAGATED SE...REACHING HISPANIOLA AND THE NE CARIB...AND WILL CONTINUE ON TO THE SE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. THE NEXT GULF OF MEXICO FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N75W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS TUE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH RETREATS E OF THE AREA MON. THE MODELS AGREE ON DEVELOPING A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE ECMWF CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN THE GFS...DEVELOPING A 1002 MB LOW PRES SYSTEMS NEAR 25N71W TUE AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION THAN THE GFS WHICH IS THE SLOWEST MODE CARRYING THE FRONT E THROUGH THE ZONE. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO SPEED UP THE GFS SOLUTION TO THE E. 25 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUE BEFORE IT MOVES OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FRONT QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE N FL COAST WED WITH THE GFS ON THE STRONG END OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS EXPLAINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION. THE SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20- 30 KT...AND W TO NW 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND IT ON TUE. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER