000 AGXX40 KNHC 190811 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES OVER E LOUISIANA EARLIER TODAY HAS SUNK TO ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF SE LOUISIANA-MS...WITH WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING SE ACROSS S FLORIDA. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE BASIN...WITH BUOYS SHOWING SEAS 2-3 FT...AND MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE W HALF...WITH SEAS LIKELY 6-8 FT S OF 24N W OF 94W...AND 4-5 FT N OF 26N. 20-25 KT SELY FLOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE GULF CURRENTLY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT N OF 25N BY THIS EVENING...AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF W-NW INTO THE NW GULF ALONG 25-26N...AND GRADIENT FLOW JUST TO THE N OF THIS BOUNDARY E-SE AROUND 20 KT...POSSIBLY 20-25 KT. A MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE SW U.S. ATTM WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ACROSS N TEXAS-OK SUN AND TRANSPORT A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF SUN AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS FORECASTING A LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND ACROSS THE NW GULF THAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH ALOFT LEADING TO VERY SQUALLY WEATHER...AND HAVE DEPICTED THIS AS A SQUALL LINE IN PROGS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH A PSN FROM NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE MON MORNING...AND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE MON...THEN E OF THE GULF LATE MON NIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG COMPARED TO RECENT ONES. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE FRONT WILL BLAST EWD ACROSS THE GULF AND CROSS FLORIDA MON NIGHT...WITH MODEST HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATE NLY WINDS TO 20 KT BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT MON NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ATLC SW TO NE CARIB HAS MOVED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA TONIGHT...AND IS BREAKING UP...WITH SAN JUAN 88D SHOWING VERY SCATTERED AND SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS MOVING S ACROSS THE ISLAND AND LOCAL WATERS. THE REMNANTS OF THE WRN PORTION OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WERE ACROSS THE WRN CARIB WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE NW EDGE. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES ACROSS THIS REGION SHOWED FRESH NLY WINDS ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE CARIB...LIKELY NOW BUILDING THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...AND ACCELERATING S OF SANTO DOMINGO...AS WELL AS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND A BROAD ZONE OF N-NE WINDS 20-25 KT W OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE W CARIB...POSSIBLY TO NEAR 30 KT OFF THE NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA BORDER. SEAS ARE RUNNING 7-9 FT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE W CARIB ATTM...WITH HIGH SEAS ALONG OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA AT 10-11 FT...AND 9-10 FT OFF OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING AS THE HIGH IN THE GULF SLIDES E AND WEAKENS...LEAVING THE STRONGEST FLOW CONFINED TO THE SW CARIB OFF OF COLOMBIA. MEANWHILE...MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE ELY THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...THEN INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT S OF 14N TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE THIS EVENING-TONIGHT. WINDS THEN DIMINISH TO NE-E 10-15 KT SAT AND SUN AND BECOME E-SE MON. NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH MON...THEN WEAKEN TUE. WINDS BECOME SE-S AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS MON...THEN DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT TUE IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE MON INTO TUE MORNING...THEN WEAKEN FROM E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS BY LATE TUE. LATEST MODEL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE N-NE ABOUT 10-15 KT. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... LARGE LOW PRES SYSTEM ACROSS THE NW ATLC EXTENDS INTO N PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE EVENING SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED GALES TO 40 KT IN W-NW FLOW N OF 28N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W. WILL THUS HAS TO ISSUE GALE WARNING WITH UPCOMING HSF. SEAS THERE RUNNING 15-20 FT PER WWIII GUIDANCE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E AND SE NEXT FEW DAYS AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS LOW LIFTS OUT AND NEXT S/W MOVE DUE E ACROSS THE W ATLC. ELSEWHERE E OF 70W...WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WERE 20-25 KT...DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 2-3 DEGREES OF THE FRONT. W OF 70W THE NWLY FLOW HAS WEAKENED TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ACCELERATING TO NEAR 20 KT AFTER EXITING CUBA IN THE CARIB. LONG-PERIOD NWLY WILL PROPAGATE SE TODAY AND TONIGHT REACHING HISPANIOLA AND THE NE CARIB BY AFTERNOON...AND THEN CONTINUE ON TO THE SE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. THE NEXT GULF OF MEXICO FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N73W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH RETREATS E OF THE AREA MON. THE SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20- 30 KT...AND W TO NW 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND IT ON TUE. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .GALE WARNING AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING