000 AGXX40 KNHC 171935 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST WED FEB 17 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES OVER E TEXAS WITH A RIDGE ALONG 30N IS PRESENTLY KEEPING CONTROL OF THE AREA'S WIND REGIME. BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SHOWING NW WINDS OF 15 KT OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF E OF 92W WITH WINDS ALREADY BECOMING N-NE 10-15 OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION W OF ABOUT 93W. SEAS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF WITH MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS DOWN TO 5 FT IN THE E GULF...AND 2-3 FT IN THE NW ZONE W OF 94W. MODELS AGREE THAT THE HIGH WILL SLIDE E TO THE FAR NE GULF BY SUN AND E OF NE FLORIDA BY LATE SUN AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN TEXAS BY SUN EVENING. RETURN SE FLOW INCREASES OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF ON THU AFTERNOON AIDED BY THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TEXAS COASTAL TROUGH AND HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. THE GRADIENT THEN WEAKENS BY SAT EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH A PSN FROM SE LOUISIANA TO FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS MON MORNING...AND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE MON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG COMPARED TO RECENT ONES. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SW 15-20 KT...AND LIGHTER WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND IT FROM A NW TO N DIRECTION. LATEST NOAA WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...OUTSIDE THE FRONTAL ZONE...THROUGH MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... PRELIMINARY 1800 UTC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM EASTERN CUBA SW TO NEAR 14N83W WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING SE TO THE W OF THE FRONT. AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 16 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED A SWATH OF N-NE 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT S OF 21N W TO 85W WITH NOAA BUOY REPORTING SEAS UP OF TO 10 FT. WINDS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT ARE N-NE 15-20 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-6 FT. THIS SAME ASCAT PASS HINTED AT NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING LOW CLOUD STREAKS WITH FAST NW MOTION OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN S OF ABOUT 16N INDICATIVE OF PERSISTENT SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL WINDS THERE WITH SPEEDS OF 20 KT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME RE-ENERGIZED SOME ON THU BY A RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SE UNITED STATES ALLOWING FOR THE FRONT TO THEN REACH FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NORTHERN COSTA RICA BY THU AFTERNOON... AND SLOWLY BECOME DIFFUSE THU NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING FROM PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 16N73W AS HIGH PRES TO THE N AND W BUILDS SE WHILE SHIFTING E. THE N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD E TO INCLUDE THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY FRI...THEN DIMINISH TO NE-E 10-15 KT SAT AND SUN AND BECOME E-SE MON. NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT REMAIN CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH MON...WHILE WINDS BECOME SE-S AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS MON IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 25N65W TO 22N69W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO EASTERN CUBA. BOTH BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING W TO NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 26N WITH SEAS TO 14 FT E OF 72W...AND TO 8 FT W OF 72W. S OF 26N W OF FRONT WINDS ARE NW TO N 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT NE OF BAHAMAS...AND TO 6 FT SW OF BAHAMAS. SE OF THE FRONT...BUOY 41043 NEAR 21N65W IS REPORTING SW WINDS OF 10 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 5 FT IN A N SWELL. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS MOSTLY OVERCAST LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT EXITS THE SW N ATLC AREA EARLY THU EVENING...AND REACHES FROM 22N55W TO NEAR THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS AS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE INTO SAT MORNING AS HIGH PRES RIDGING BUILDS ESE JUST NE OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH SUN ALLOWING FOR SEASTATE CONDITIONS TO SETTLE DOWN TO ABOUT 4-6 FT E OF 74W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE E PORTION WHERE RESIDUAL LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL SHOULD YIELD MAX SEA HEIGHTS OF 10 OR 11 FT BY EARLY SAT...DIMINISHING TO 8 FT SUN AFTERNOON AND TO 5 FT MON. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT W OF 74W BY SUN UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE HIGH THEN RETREATS E OF THE AREA ON MON ALLOWING FOR SE TO S WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE