000 AGXX40 KNHC 151931 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EST MON FEB 15 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF REGION FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 13 FT. THE HI ASCAT FROM 1624 UTC...PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF N WINDS 30 TO 40 KT JUST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE SW GULF. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE TONIGHT...AND BE SE OF THE AREA BY EARLY TUE. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF S OF 25N W OF 95W TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT. NLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TUE AND WED WITH SOME INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF WED AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE SE CONUS DUE TO A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM AFFECTING THE WESTERN ATLC. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF LATE THU THROUGH FRI AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CLIP THE N GULF WATERS SAT. CARIBBEAN... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT REACHING FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH JAMAICA TO E HONDURAS TUE NIGHT AND DISSIPATE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WED. N PORTION OF COLD FRONT SLOWS DOWN...PASSING THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE N OF 19N FRI. HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS AREA W OF FRONT WITH SOME INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS WED AND THU. A BELT OF NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT IS NOTED OVER THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 14N PER AN ASCAT PASS AND SFC DATA. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRI WITH NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT SAT PER LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MODEL. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 29N76W WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NE ALLOWING A NEW COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY TUE MORNING...AND FROM 24N65W TO 20N70W WED MORNING THEN STALL OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF AREA LATE WED THROUGH THU AND PASS SE OF AREA THU NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS W BEHIND THE FRONT THU AND FRI. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND TUE. SO FAR...THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL IS THE ONLY ONE SUGGESTING GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THE SW FLOW. DECIDE TO KEEP WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE WARNING W OF 94W TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR