000 AGXX40 KNHC 120807 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... LOW PRES CENTER 1002 MB AT 27N92W WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO 20N97W. LOW PRES MOVES ALONG 28N TO REACH FL COAST LATER TODAY AND OUT OF GULF TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS OBSERVED BY SHIPS AND SATELLITE CONFIRM GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SOLUTION WHICH EXTRAPOLATE TO CONTINUATION OF GALE FORCE ADVISORIES FOR CENTRAL GULF TODAY AND EASTERN GULF REGION TONIGHT. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH ON BOTH BASINS AS LOW PRES MOVES OUT OF GULF LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE... FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS BEHIND FRONT DIMINISH TO MODERATE BREEZE W OF 90W SAT WHILE CONTINUE AS STRONG IN EASTERN GULF TILL LATE SAT NIGHT. SECOND COLD FRONT ENTER NW GULF SUN NIGHT WITH LESS IMPACTING SW FLOW E OF BOUNDARY AND MAIN MODEL GUIDANCE FALLS SHORT OF GALE FORCE IN WEST SIDE. NEVERTHELESS DAMMING OF COLD AIR ALONG MEXICO GULF COAST MIGHT PUSH WINDS OVER EDGE S OF 23N W OF 94W. CARIBBEAN... COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS YUCATAN PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT REACHING EASTERN CUBA ACROSS JAMAICA TO COSTA RICA SAT NIGHT...THEN BECOME DIFFUSE FROM PUERTO RICO TO 13N80W SUN AND MON. FRESH N WINDS BEHIND FRONT DIMINISH SUN NIGHT AS LOW PRES 1006 MB OVER COLOMBIA IS FORCED S BY REMAINS OF FRONT... ONLY TO RETURN LATE MON AND TUE WITH ADDED INTENSITY...1004 MB ...AND STRONG BREEZE ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST. LARGE ERUPTION FROM SOUFRIERE VOLCANO IN MONSERRAT YESTERDAY LAUNCHED DENSE ASH CLOUD HIGH INTO EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY BECOMING A HAZARD TO MARINERS EXPECTED TO LAST SEVERAL DAYS. CLOUD EXTENDS ABOVE FIFTY THOUSAND FT AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS DRIFT IT E WHERE ASH PARTICLES FALL AND CONTINUE THE HAZARD. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... COLD FRONT FROM 22N55W ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA MOVE TO 20N55W TO 17N63W LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE SAT AND SUN. STRONG N WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONT AND VERY LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS AFFECT MOST OF ISLANDS N COAST AND PENETRATE INTO CARIBBEAN ACROSS MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES WITH HEIGHTS TO 10-12 FT. WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT QUICKLY DIMINISH ACROSS ATLC WATERS AS SE-S FLOW HELP SWELL DECAY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ONLY TO HAVE SECOND COLD FRONT ENTER FLORIDA ATLC WATERS WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE LARGE N SWELLS. HIGH PRES CENTER 1018 MB TAKE OVER SW N ATLC MON AND TUE BLOCKING NEXT COLD FRONT FROM INTRUDING SO FAR S AS THE PREVIOUS TWO FRONTS. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SWELL EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF 28N THROUGH TUE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS N OF 25N TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ080...GALE WARNING. .GMZ082...GALE WARNING W OF 92W. .GMZ084...GALE CONDITIONS N OF 25N. .GMZ086...GALE CONDITIONS N OF 25N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES