000 AGXX40 KNHC 111929 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST THU FEB 11 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A LOW PRES IS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 27N97W. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW CENTER ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TO JUST WEST OF TAMPICO MEXICO. GUIDANCE IS COMING TOGETHER WITH THE CONSENSUS MOVING THE LOW E ALONG 27-28N REACHING THE FL COAST AT ABOUT 28N LATE FRI AND MOVING OUT OF AREA FRI EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SW FLOW AND N OF LOW CENTER. FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. THESE POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT ALL WATERS SAT NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW ALREADY SET UP W GULF. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF SUN EVENING REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 23N97W MON MORNING AND SE OF AREA MON NIGHT. NLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL MAX AT 30 KT AND SLY FLOW AHEAD WILL BE 15 TO 20 KT NORTHERN WATERS. CARIBBEAN... WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM HISPANIOLA TO NE HONDURAS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SE REACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS FRI MORNING WITH THE WESTERN SEGMENT LIFTING N OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI EVENING...REACHING A POSITION FROM EASTERN CUBA TO SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N83W SAT EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM NEAR PUERTO RICO TO 13N80W SUN AND MON. NLY WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20 KT BEHIND FRONT THROUGH LATE SUN WITH NEXT DRY COLD FRONT ARRIVING NW CARIBBEAN LATE MON. TRADE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE WILL BLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY FRI. A LARGE ERUPTION FROM THE SOUFRIERE VOLCANO IN THE WEST INDIES HAS OCCURRED...AND DENSE ASH CLOUD...VERY WELL DEFINED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS MOVING RAPIDLY EWD. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THIS AREA. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF AREA EXTENDING FROM 22N65W TO HISPANIOLA. STRONG NW WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT PER A RECENT ASCAT PASS AND SURFACE DATA. CURRENT GALE WARNING VERIFIED BY SHIP REPORTS AND ALSO AT BERMUDA. GALE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT E OF 65W TONIGHT AND E OF 55W FRI. NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NW WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRI THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE AGAIN FRI NIGHT AS THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRES MOVES E ACROSS FL THEN ACCELERATES TO THE NE PASSING NEAR BERMUDA LATE SAT. BASED ON THE GFS...NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS...GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED N OF 24N EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT AND SAT. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT STRONG SHIFTING WINDS OVER WATERS W OF 75W AS EARLY AS FRI AFTERNOON WITH INCREASE IN WINDS SPREADING E OF 75W LATE FRI NIGHT. NLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE W BEGINNING LATE SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT ENTIRE AREA W OF 65W LATE SUN. SLY FLOW INCREASE AGAIN NW ATLC WATERS MON WITH NEXT FRONT ALONG GA COAST MON AFTERNOON. BEST GUESS FOR NOW IS ANOTHER 20 TO 25 KT WIND SHIFT OVER ATLC N OF 27N WITH FRONT REACHING A POSITION FROM 31N75W TO SE BAHAMAS EARLY TUE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 28N E OF 70W. .AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 24N FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ084...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 25N FRI. .GMZ086...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 25N FRI AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR