000 AGXX40 KNHC 110716 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EST THU FEB 11 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... COASTAL TROUGH EVIDENT ALONG MEXICAN COAST AND STILL EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY N ALONG THE TX COAST TODAY WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING NEAR 27N97W LATE TODAY. GUIDANCE IS COMING TOGETHER WITH THE CONSENSUS MOVING THE LOW E ALONG 27-28N REACHING THE FL COAST AT ABOUT 28N AROUND SUNSET FRI. EXPECT NEAR GALE W OF LOW IN COASTAL WATERS ALONG SE TX AND 25 TO 30 KT NLY FLOW OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. POST FRONTAL NLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT ALL WATERS SAT NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW ALREADY SET UP W GULF. ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS NW GULF MIDDAY SUN REACHING FROM NW FL TO NE MEXICO SUNRISE MON AND SE OF AREA MON NIGHT. NLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL MAX AT 30 KT AND SLY FLOW AHEAD WILL BE 15 TO 20 KT NORTHERN WATERS. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... CURRENTLY REMNANT FRONTAL CLOUDS...OR WEAK WARM FRONT...NOW E OF 55W WITH COLD FRONT FROM 31N55W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE. CURRENT GALE WARNING VERIFIED BY SHIP REPORTS AND ALSO AT BERMUDA. COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 24N55W TO HISPANIOLA SUNSET TODAY LOSING ITS SE PUSH FROM 19N55W TO HISPANIOLA LATE FRI. GALE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT E OF 65W TONIGHT AND E OF 55W FRI. NLY WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NW WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRI THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE AGAIN FRI NIGHT AS THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRES MOVES E ACROSS FL THEN ACCELERATES TO THE NE PASSING NEAR BERMUDA LATE SAT. MODELS STILL VARY SO ON ALL ASPECTS OF LOW SO EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS EACH FORECAST CYCLE AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST STRONG GALE CONDITIONS WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES MAX WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF MAX OF 30 KT TILL WE SEE HOW LOW PRES PREFORMS UPSTREAM IN GULF OF MEXICO. IN ANY EVENT MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT STRONG SHIFTING WINDS OVER WATERS W OF 75W AS EARLY AS FRI AFTERNOON WITH INCREASE IN WINDS SPREADING E OF 75W LATE FRI NIGHT. NLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE W BEGINNING LATE SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT ENTIRE AREA W OF 65W LATE SUN. SLY FLOW INCREASE AGAIN NW ATLC WATERS MON WITH NEXT FRONT ALONG GA COAST MON AFTERNOON. BEST GUESS FOR NOW IS ANOTHER 20 TO 25 KT WIND SHIFT OVER ATLC N OF 27N WITH FRONT REACHING PSN 31N75W TO SE BAHAMAS AROUND SUNRISE TUE. CARIBBEAN... CDFNT FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BELIZE ATTM EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E TO OVER MONA PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE WESTERN SEGMENT LIFTING N OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. NEXT CDFNT YUCATAN CHANNEL AROUND SUNSET FRI LOSING IDENTITY SAT NIGHT FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO HONDURAS. NLY WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20 KT BEHIND FRONT THROUGH LATE SUN WITH NEXT DRY COLD FRONT ARRIVING NW CARIBBEAN LATE MON. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 28N E OF 75W. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON