000 AGXX40 KNHC 080712 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EST MON FEB 08 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES DOMINATING THE GULF WILL WEAKEN AS THE PARENT HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTS E ACROSS THE SE CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NEXT CDFNT TO MOVE OFF THE TX COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT RACING E PASSING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FL TUE NIGHT. POST FRONTAL NLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO A MAX OF 30 KT TUE OVER THE W GULF AND CONTINUE OVER THE NE GULF INTO TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LEAVE A REMNANT TROUGH ALONG THE SW GULF COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL PERSIST AND EXPAND N TO ALONG THE S TX COAST THROUGH THU NIGHT. GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE SUGGESTING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT NEAR 26N96W THU AND MOVES THE LOW NE THROUGH FRI TRAILING A FRONTAL TROUGH TO ITS S. OTHER GUIDANCE IS ALSO NOW SUGGESTING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT...SOME A LITTLE FURTHER N WITH AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS WELL. SO ADJUSTED 00Z GRAPHICAL PACKAGE TO SHOW A BROAD LOW SHIFTING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THU AND FRI. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND SAT WITH CAA TO AT LEAST 30 KT AND MINIMAL GALE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL WAIT FOR MORE CONSISTENCE IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... CDFNT EXTENDING FROM 30N55W TO HAITI WILL MOVE SE AND STALL WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF FRONT PERSISTING ALONG LINE 20N E OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN WHATEVER REMAINS OF FRONT WILL MOVE N AS A WEAK WARM FRONT WED AND THU. NEXT CDFNT OFF GA COAST TUE NIGHT RACING E TO PSN FROM BERMUDA TO WINDWARD PASSAGE WED NIGHT...AND DISSIPATING OVER WATERS FROM 18N TO 21N E OF HISPANIOLA THU NIGHT AND FRI. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR FRI AND SAT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT LOW PRES TO MOVE FROM GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FL ALONG 27N INTO SW ATLC TURNING NE AND PASSING S OF BERMUDA SAT. LIKELY TO BE CONVECTIVE NEAR LOW AND ALONG THE ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT THAT IT WILL DRAG ACROSS BAHAMAS SAT. FOR NOW EXPECTING 20 TO 30 KT WINDS TO START LATE FRI THROUGH MOST OF SAT. MARINERS STAY TUNED TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS AS THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE PLENTY OF ADJUSTMENTS. CARIBBEAN... FRONTAL TROUGH DISSIPATING FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA ATTM. SOME REMNANT CLOUDS MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO MOVE BACK N OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS AS SLY FLOW SETS UP TUE. NEXT CDFNT YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE NIGHT...BUT DOES NOT SEEM AS STRONG THIS FAR S AND WILL LIKELY HANG UP FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN GULF OF HONDURAS WED NIGHT AND THU WITH REMNANTS DRIFTING NW OVER GULF OF HONDURAS THU AND THE NW WATERS THU NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT CDFNT YUCATAN CHANNEL AROUND SUNSET FRI. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 29N WED AND THU. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON