000
AGXX40 KNHC 040647
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EST THU FEB 04 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W

A 1007 MB LOW PRES IS NEAR THE S TEXAS MEXICO BORDER. THE
HE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES OVER 
THE SE U.S. IS RESULTING IN 20-30 KT EASTERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF 
THE WESTERN GULF WITH SEAS UP TO 13 FT. MODELS ARE IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT IN MOVING IT NE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND INTO SE 
LOUISIANA LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE 
FORCE WINDS NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST ON THU...BUT OUR FORECAST 
CONTINUES TO HOLD JUST BELOW GALE FORCE...30 KT...WITH HIGHER 
GUSTS DUE TO THE VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS IN THE 
GFS ENSEMBLE AND IN OTHER MODELS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
FRI AND THEN E OF THE AREA SAT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE ATLC IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT 
THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD 
OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST INTO THE ATLC FRI NIGHT WITH SW 
WINDS TO GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE 
ZONE EAST OF THE FRONT LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT. THE FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM 31N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA SAT AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN
FROM 26N65W TO E CUBA SUN. HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUN 
AND MON.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLC AND TYPICAL LOWER PRES OVER NORTHERN SOUTH 
AMERICA IS PRODUCING A SWATH OF 25-30 KT EASTERLY TRADES NEAR 
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A BROADER SWATH OF 20-25 KT EASTERLIES 
EXIST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 81W AND THE 
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE. THE HIGH IS FORECAST 
TO MOVE E AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE TRADE WINDS TO WEAKEN BY FRI 
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 20 KT ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL FRI NIGHT WITH 15-20 KT NLY WINDS  W OF FRONT. THE FRONT 
WILL DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. 

WARNINGS...
ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER DGS