000 AGXX40 KNHC 030657 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST WED FEB 03 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W COLD FRONT HAS MOVED E OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH JUST OFF THE S COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N97W TO 21N97W. MODELS FORECAST A LOW TO FORM OVER THE TROUGH WITH THE GFS STILL INDICATING POSSIBLE SHORT LIVED GALE FORCE WINDS WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES TO THE NE. THE NAM AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE WEAKER WITH THE LOW AND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE S. ENSEMBLE ONLY GIVES A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF 34 KT WINDS WHILE AND THE NAVY WEB SITE GIVES NO CHANCE OF GALE. SO WITH ALL OF THIS WILL KEEP CURRENT WORDING OF 25-30 KT WITH GUST TO GALE FORCE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER SE LOUISIANA THU NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY FRI AND SE OF THE AREA SAT. HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. ATLC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N74W TO 24N80W THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO 31N67W TO E CUBA LATER TODAY AND MOVE E OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SLY WINDS INCREASE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N73W TO S FLORIDA EARLY SAT AND FROM 28N65W TO E CUBA SUN. STRONG WINDS SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE SAT SO WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE GALE EXPECTED SAT. STRONG EASTERLY TRADES CONTINUE IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...UP TO 30 KT...NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 13 FT. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI THEN DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AS THE CENTRAL ATLC HIGH FINALLY MOVES TO THE NE. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS SAT AND FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS SUN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER DGS