000 AGXX40 KNHC 021921 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST TUE FEB 02 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS IN THE ATLC WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ACROSS FLORIDA TO ANOTHER LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED NEAR 26N85W WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING THAT LOW TO NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A 1554 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED 25 TO 30 KT WINDS RIGHT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WERE ALSO OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND FRONT MOVING FROM THE E GULF TO OVER FLORIDA. THESE FEATURES WILL QUICKLY MOVE E TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM THE N BEHIND THEM. MEANWHILE A TROUGH IS IN THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM 28N93W TO 27N96W TO 23N97W TO 19N95W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND BUILDING HIGH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING E-SE WINDS TO 25-30 KT IN THE W GULF BY LATE TONIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SMALL AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH ALTHOUGH THIS SEEMS TO BE DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES SO WILL REFRAIN FROM A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NE TO NEAR 28N94W WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW TO 21N97W BY THU EVENING WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU EVENING. THE LOW WILL PUSH INLAND OVER SE LOUISIANA WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM 29N90W TO 21N95W BY EARLY FRI THEN FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA FRI EVENING AND SE OF THE GULF BY EARLY SAT. HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT SAT THROUGH SUN WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING IN THE FAR W GULF BY LATE SUN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... STRONG EASTERLY TRADES CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EASTWARD TO THE TROPICAL N ATLC DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES AND PERSISTENT LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE A 1416 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED NE-E 25-30 KT WINDS. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY WED WITH THE PRES GRADIENT SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING LATE WED THROUGH SUN AS THE CENTRAL ATLC HIGH FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE NE. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRI NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY SAT EVENING THEN FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER BY LATE SUN WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... LOW PRES THAT FORMED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER HAS MOVED NE OF THE AREA TO NEAR 32N79W WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO JUST SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 31N77W TO 27N73W AND A 1412 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED 20-25 KT EASTERLY WINDS N OF THE FRONT WHERE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS. THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH E PARALLELING 31N AND WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N72W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS BY EARLY WED THEN FROM 27N65W TO NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WED EVENING THEN WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD. THE STRONGEST WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT (25-30 KT) WILL BE CONFINED TO N OF 27N. THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION HAS MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG AND N OF 30N BY LATE WED ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS GALE WINDS N OF 31N. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A GALE WARNING FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL RUN. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NW WITH WINDS DIMINISHING WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OVER THE W PORTION FRI AND FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OFF FLORIDA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. GALE FORCE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE APPEARING MORE LIKELY SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE AND GALE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED DURING THE NEXT FCST PACKAGE. HIGH PRES RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY