000
AGXX40 KNHC 020709
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EST TUE FEB 02 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W

A COUPLE OF TROUGHS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...ONE IN THE WESTERN 
GULF FROM 27N97W TO 20N95W. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N85W 
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE ENE TODAY 
AND SHOULD BE E OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. MODELS FORECAST A LOW 
TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN TROUGH AND MAY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS
HOWEVER THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW. THE GFS 
PUTS THE LOW FURTHEST TO THE N THEREFORE HAS A TIGHTER GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NE. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODELS WILL NOT MENTION GALE BUT WILL WORD GUSTS TO GALE.
THE LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER SE LOUISIANA THU NIGHT WITH 
A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW AND WILL EXTEND FROM  NEAR MOBILE
ALABAMA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY FRI AND ACROSS THE SE GULF
EARLY SAT.

ATLC STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N65W TO 25N70W THEN A WARM 
FRONT TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER
TODAY. A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE E AND A LOW 
PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY AND MOVES 
RAPIDLY TO THE NE. THE LOW WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT 
WILL EXTEND FROM 31N69W TO W CUBA WED AND FROM 26N65W TO 
WINDWARD PASSAGE WED EVENING AND E OF THE AREA THU. HIGH PRES 
BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SLY WINDS INCREASE OVER THE NW PORTION
OF THE AREA FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE 
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM TO S FLORIDA EARLY SAT. STRONG WINDS BOTH 
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

STRONG EASTERLY TRADES CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
EASTWARD TO THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE STRONGEST WINDS (UP TO 30 
KT) WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 
13 FT ON WED. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED WITH THE 
PRES GRADIENT SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING THU THROUGH SAT AS THE 
CENTRAL ATLC HIGH FINALLY MOVES TO THE NE. COLD FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRI 
NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS SAT.

WARNINGS...
ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER DGS