000 AGXX40 KNHC 011936 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST MON FEB 01 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE SE GULF AND AFTERNOON BUOYS OBS REPORTING NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS NW OF THE TROUGH AND E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS SE OF THE TROUGH. THIS BOUNDARY IS ALSO PRODUCING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SOME ISOLATED TSTMS EMBEDDED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NE-E OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM THE N. MEANWHILE ANOTHER TROUGH HAS FORMED IN THE FAR W GULF WATERS JUST OFFSHORE OF TEXAS AND MEXICO WITH LIGHT WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. E-SE WINDS WILL INCREASE NE-E OF THE TROUGH TUE NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THIS TROUGH. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE ENE WITH THE LOW NEAR 28N93W WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 21N96W BY EARLY THU THEN THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLC BY EARLY FRI WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N85W TO 20N95W. LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS DEVELOPS A DEEPER LOW THAN THE ECMWF HI-RES SOLUTION AND CONSEQUENTLY FCSTS GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. WILL REFRAIN FROM GALE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AND AWAIT GREATER MODEL AGREEMENT AND PERSISTENCE. HIGH PRES OVER TEXAS WILL RIDGE INTO THE GULF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES CONTINUED TO CAPTURE STRONG EASTERLY TRADES FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EASTWARD TO THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE STRONGEST WINDS (UP TO 30 KT) WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 14 FT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED WITH THE PRES GRADIENT SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING THU THROUGH SAT AS THE CENTRAL ATLC HIGH FINALLY EXITS OFF TO THE NE. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT REACHING FROM EASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS BY LATE SAT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE ATLC FROM 31N54W TO 25N69W. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH 1022 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 26N48W HOLDING IN PLACE. SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE STRONG E-SE WINDS ARE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE W PART OF THE AREA NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST WITH A WARM FRONT SLOWING LIFTING N ACROSS S FLORIDA. A TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE ATLC FLORIDA COAST. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 30N81W BY EARLY TUE THEN WILL MOVE NE OF 31N DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW PART. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS MAY BE REALIZED E OF THE LOW/FRONT TUE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH PREFER TO WAIT FOR ONE MORE MODEL RUN PRIOR TO ISSUING ANY HEADLINES. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N77W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY TUE EVENING THEN FROM 31N71W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS BY EARLY WED THEN WILL DISSIPATE FROM 25N65W TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA BY LATE WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN S OF 31N FROM THE CAROLINAS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW RETURNS AND STRENGTHENS ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST THU NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER BY EARLY FRI. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE N OF 29N FRI THROUGH SAT AS THE LOW AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY