000
AGXX40 KNHC 311939
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED SE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS 
BEGINNING TO RETURN NORTHWARD. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL 
EXTEND FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO 25N86W TO THE NE YUCATAN 
BY EARLY MON. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES WILL FORM ALONG THIS 
BOUNDARY LATE MON THEN WILL LIFT TO THE NE OVER FLORIDA MON 
NIGHT INTO TUE DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SE GULF 
IN ITS WAKE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE N. 
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS AND MEXICO 
COASTS TUE INTO WED WHILE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP AND 
STRENGTHENS OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NW GULF TUE NIGHT THROUGH 
WED. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS 
FEATURE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU NEAR THE TEXAS COAST THEN WILL 
PUSH TO THE E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO THE SW. THE LOW WILL BE OVER SE 
LOUISIANA THU NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THERE TO 
22N94W THEN FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF 
CAMPECHE FRI AFTERNOON AND FROM TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO THE NE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE FRI.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRES NE OF THE WINDWARD 
ISLANDS AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL AND 
E CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC RESULTING IN FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADES WHILE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN. 1458 UTC ASCAT AND EARLIER 1102 UTC WINDSAT 
SCATTEROMETER PASSES BOTH CAPTURED 25-30 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST 
OF COLOMBIA. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY 
WED. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 14 FT MON THROUGH TUE OVER THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FETCH ACROSS 
THE BASIN. THE ATLC HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT TO THE E 
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE ANTILLES WED THROUGH FRI RESULTING IN A 
WEAKER PRES GRADIENT AND THUS DIMINISHING THE TRADES.

SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N67W THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND ACROSS WESTERN CUBA. A 1454 UTC ASCAT AND AN 
1100 UTC WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CONTINUED TO SHOW 20-25 KT 
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH ANY GALE FORCE WINDS N 
OF 31N. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND WITH 
THIS FRONT AND THUS THE GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED WITH 
THE NEXT FCST ISSUANCE. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 30N65W TO 
25N72W BY LATE THIS EVENING THEN FROM 31N54W TO 25N67W BY EARLY 
MON. HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT 
THEN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TO ALONG 31/32N BY MON EVENING ALLOWING 
FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE 
FLORIDA COAST. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL DEVELOP A COASTAL 
TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULFSTREAM MON NIGHT AND WEAK LOW 
PRES OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS WILL MOVE TO THE NE AND 
MERGE WITH THE ATLC TROUGH MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. THE LOW 
WILL THEN MOVE TO THE ALONG 31/32N TUE DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD 
FRONT IN ITS WAKE. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N78W TO 
BETWEEN SE FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS TUE EVENING THEN FROM 31N69W 
TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS BY EARLY WED. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND 
THE FRONT WED NIGHT THROUGH THU WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW 
RETURNING THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS PROGGED 
TO MOVE FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS ACROSS N FLORIDA AND 
OFF THE SE U.S. COAST BY LATE FRI.

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
.AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 30N E OF FRONT THROUGH THIS 
AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER LEWITSKY