000 AGXX40 KNHC 301943 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. LATEST BUOY OBS ALONG WITH A 1516 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT W OF THE FRONT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KT E OF THE FRONT. MEANWHILE MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SW GULF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A SQUALL LINE IS MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS N OF 25N AND MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 25N. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE NE YUCATAN LATE THIS EVENING THEN WILL EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY EARLY SUN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LIFT THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH BACK TO THE N LATER ON SUN WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE SE GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT FINALLY PUSHING E OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLC ON TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM THE N. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE W GULF AND A COASTAL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR/ALONG THE MEXICO AND TEXAS COASTS ON WED. LOW PRES MAY THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH WED NIGHT WHICH WOULD DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF AS THE LOW MOVES E ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO WHETHER OR NOT A LOW WILL INDEED DEVELOP AS THE CURRENT GFS SOLUTION MAY ONCE AGAIN BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRES NE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WHILE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY ON SUN AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES N OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE ATLC WATERS ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN COAST DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR GALE CONDITIONS NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST SUN NIGHT ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A GALE WARNING WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE A GALE WARNING BECOMES NECESSARY. MEANWHILE THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A FRONTAL TROUGH SUN INTO MON. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL REMAIN FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EASTWARD TO THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W 1021 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 28N58W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO CENTRAL CUBA. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE WESTERN WATERS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT N OF 29N AND E OF THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUN. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N73W THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY SUN THEN FROM 29N65W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS SUN EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM THE CAROLINAS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BECOMES ENHANCED OVER THE WESTERN WATERS AND A COASTAL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM ON MON. WEAK LOW PRES IS PROGGED TO FORM ALONG THIS TROUGH OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST THEN WILL LIFT NE OF 31N LATE TUE INTO WED DRAGGING A COLD FRONT OFF TO THE SW OF THE LOW CENTER IN ITS WAKE. THE 12 UTC OPERATIONAL GFS RUN INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS N OF 30N AND E OF THE FRONT TUE EVENING ALTHOUGH THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT A LOW ACTUALLY FORMS AND HOW MUCH IT WILL DEEPEN PRIOR TO MOVING OFF TO THE NE OF 31N. THE 12 UTC ECMWF DEVELOPS A WEAKER LOW AND FARTHER TO THE NE THAN THE GFS SOLUTION AND THUS WILL REFRAIN FROM ANY GALE HEADLINES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME UNTIL MORE PERSISTENCE AND GREATER MODEL CONSENSUS ARISES. NEVERTHELESS THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WED THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING BEHIND IT ON THU WITH PERHAPS YET ANOTHER COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR THE SE U.S. COAST BY LATE THU. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 29N E OF FRONT LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE WARNING S OF 22N W OF 94W THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY