000 AGXX40 KNHC 300741 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST SAT JAN 30 2010 CORRECTED SW N ATLC PARAGRAPH MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT PUSHED INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRI...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM MOBILE ALABAMA SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ...AND TO JUST INLAND THE MEXICAN COAST AT 19N84W. TO THE E OF THE FRONT THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE ATLC RIDGE IS RETREATING EASTWARD. A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS W OF THE FRONT ARE REPORTING NW-N WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT. BOTH BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE REPORTING SLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS OF 8 AND 9 FT. MODELS MOVE THE ATTENDANT LOW OF 1007 MB CURRENTLY OVER SW MISSISSIPPI NE TO A LINE FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKENS AS IT REACHES FROM THE FLORIDA SW COAST TO ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IN INTO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...MOVING E OF THE GULF DURING SUN MORNING. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT UNDER COLD N FLOW SHOULD BRING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE. THE 25-30 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO NE-E 10-15 KT ON SUN. NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE WITH SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT MAY BE ABOUT 2 FT UNDONE IN THE SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGER N WINDS THERE. AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH MON BEFORE WEAKENING TUE. ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS S INTO THE GULF ON WED. MODELS AGAIN HINT THAT SOME TROUGHINESS FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT MAY LINGER OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF MON AND TUE PERHAPS INCREASING THE GRADIENT SOME THERE. SINCE THIS IS NOT TILL THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WILL EVALUATE UPDATED MODELS BEFORE BEING MORE SPECIFIC IN THE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND DETAILS WITH THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW INCREASES OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF ON WED WITH E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO RESULT IN A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PERSISTING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. THE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM A FEW SHIPS NOTED FROM FROM LATE LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING WERE JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM 0246 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED SEVERAL WINDS OF 30 KT WITH A COUPLE OF 35 KT WIND BARBS. DOES SEEM THAT THE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WATERS S OF ABOUT 14N NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. WINDS ELSEWHERE WERE NE GENERALLY IN 20 KT RANGE WITH SUSTAINED E 25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS REPORTED BY A COUPLE OF SHIPS. MAX SEAS WERE REPORTED UP TO 15 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY A SHIP. AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MAKES HEADWAY TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HRS... WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SE AND BECOME LIGHTER THAN THE CURRENT SPEEDS OF 20 KT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SEA... PRIMARILY THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SAT NIGHT BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND SLOWS DOWN. IT SHOULD THEN WASH OUT BY LATE SUN AS GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRIEFLY BECOME NE 20 KT THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BEFORE THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSED. N SWELLS UP TO 8 FT WERE NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 9 FT TONIGHT WITH NNE 10 FT SWELLS JUST BRUSHING THE FAR NE WATERS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT GOING INTO TUE AND WED WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR THE COAST OF S AMERICA WHERE ELY WINDS MAY BE IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...CORRECTED A 1023 HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 29N60W WITH A RIDGE W ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE HIGH IS KEEPING LIGHT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE SE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE A TIGHTER GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT. THE HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE E OF THE AREA THROUGH SUN AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT APPROACHES FLORIDA AND THE FAR WESTERN WATERS THIS EVENING. IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL SHARPLY VEER OVER THE NW PORTION TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SAT EVENING...AND REACH FROM NEAR 31N75W TO S FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT...FROM 31N73W TO JUST OFFSHORE THE SE FLORIDA COAST AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN MORNING...FROM NEAR 31N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA BY SUN EVENING WHILE WEAKENING...THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE FAR SE WATERS MON AND TUE. IN THE LONG TERM...MODELS KEY IN ON AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR NW WATERS TUE AND WED DRAGGING A COLD FRONT FROM TO A PSN FROM NEAR 31N66W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE WED. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A QUICK SHOT OF NW FLOW OF 20-25 KT WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED WITH SW WINDS OF 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS UP TO 9 FT...BUT THIS MAY BE A LITTLE UNDONE AT THE PRESENT TIME. WINDS ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT ON WED WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1-2 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 30N THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE WARNING S OF 22N W OF FRONT TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE