000 AGXX40 KNHC 291938 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE OF TEXAS AND EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. SURFACE OBS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST ARE INDICATING NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT W OF THE FRONT WHILE A 1536 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 23N AND E OF THE FRONT. RADAR MOSAIC IS DISPLAYING A HEALTHY/STRONG SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS PRIMARILY N OF 25N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT S OF 25N. MEANWHILE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE E AND CENTRAL GULF. THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND SHIFT E AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TO THE E TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY SAT THEN FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT EVENING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT EARLY SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SAT NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO THE N AS A TROUGH WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG IT. THIS FEATURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TO 24N87W TO THE YUCATAN EARLY MON THEN FROM TAMPA BAY TO 25N86W TO THE YUCATAN MON EVENING THEN E OF THE GULF AND OVER FLORIDA BY TUE EVENING. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUN THROUGH TUE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE W GULF TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... STRONG HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED N-NE OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES REMAIN OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. A 1445 UTC JASON2 ALTIMETER PASS CAPTURED 10-13 FT SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS SETTING UP OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A COLD FRONT MARCHES E THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EASTWARD THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TUE THROUGH WED AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES. MEANWHILE THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CROSS INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SAT NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW RETROGRADE THE FRONT BACK TO THE N AND INTO THE GULF RATHER THAN STALLING IT OUT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A 1022 MB HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 29N67W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE W FROM THE HIGH INTO N FLORIDA. A 1534 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS DEPICTED LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS WITH E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT W AND S OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT EXISTS N OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE W PORTION. S-SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE SAT W OF 74W AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OF N FLORIDA SAT EVENING AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE N OF 30N AND E OF THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE BY SUN EVENING. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N72W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY EARLY SUN THEN FROM 31N64W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY SUN EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON. A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST AND OVER THE GULF STREAM MON EVENING WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH TUE. LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW DEVELOP A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND THEN MOVE IT ACROSS FLORIDA WHERE IT WILL THEN MERGE WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH TUE THROUGH WED WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 30N E OF FRONT SAT NIGHT AND SUN. CARIBBEAN... .AMZ084 AND AMZ086...GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W TONIGHT. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE WARNING S OF 22N W OF FRONT SAT AND SAT NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY