000 AGXX40 KNHC 271926 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST WED JAN 27 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... EARLIER AREAS OF DENSE FOG/STRATUS OVER THE W GULF HAVE LIFTED TO AROUND 8-10K FT WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO GREATER THAN 5 SM AS INDICATED BY SURFACE OBS FROM KBRO AND KCRP THUS HAVE REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM THE FCST OVER THE W GULF WATERS. 1028 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF AND A 1436 UTC ASCAT AND AN EARLIER 1212 UTC WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS BOTH CAPTURED NE TO E WINDS AROUND 20 KT IN THE SE GULF. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS ALSO BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER THE W GULF AND THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY FRI AND WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE GULF WATERS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW GULF FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE GULF SAT NIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES MOVES IN FROM THE N. A RIDGE THEN REMAINS OVER THE GULF SUN THROUGH MON. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 20N85W TO EASTERN BELIZE. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC EXTENDING FROM 13N55W TO 12N61W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. BOTH OF THESE FRONTS WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SUGGESTING GALE CONDITIONS THERE BEGINNING THU AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT. THEREAFTER THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY SO GALE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH BY EARLY FRI. THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS FURTHER SAT THROUGH MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SAT NIGHT WITH TRADES DIMINISHING OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N65W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO CENTRAL CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A 1435 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED THAT THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE SHIFTED E OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH W-NW 20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT CONFINED TO N OF 30N AND E OF 70W WITH A HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE W OF 70W. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SE U.S. WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT EXCEPT S OF 23N WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHTEST WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT. THE HIGH SHIFTS E OF 65W FRI NIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE W PORTION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST SAT NIGHT AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS N OF 30N AND E OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS E ON MON WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING BEHIND IT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .AMZ086...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W THU AND THU NIGHT. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED W OF FRONT FRI NIGHT AND SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY