000 AGXX40 KNHC 261939 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS/FOG CONFINED TO SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 94W. IT HAS LASTED LONGER THAN EXPECTED...BUT SHOULD ERODE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH REDEVELOPMENT A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE HIGH PRES IS PRESENT OVER THE AREA WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM BOTH SHIPS AND BUOYS FORM DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON INDICATING NW-N WINDS DOWN TO THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT OVER THE NE GULF...NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT IN THE MIDDLE AND E-SE WINDS OF 10 KT IN THE WESTERN GULF W OF 93W. SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 3-6 FT IN THE NE GULF...3-5 FT IN THE SW PORTION AND TO 2-3 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT IN THE FAR SE WATERS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOWED MAX VALUES OF 6-7 FT UNDER HIGHER WINDS OF 15-20 KT FROM THE NE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E OF THE GULF THROUGH FRI AS SE-S RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN INCREASES..AND SPREADS E TO OVER THE EASTERN WATERS BY THU NIGHT. THIS TAKES PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS LATE FRI MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS WELL THE MEAN GFS AND GUN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE ON FRI...FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE SAT THEN PUSH SE OF THE SUN MORNING. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE ASSOCIATED LOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT. GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS AND THE REGIONAL NAM ARE SIMILAR IN TAKING THE EASTWARD JUST INLAND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST RATHER QUICKLY ON FRI WITH A TURN TO THE NE TO ALONG THE NE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS ON SAT. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FURTHER S WITH THE LOW TAKING IT ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI EVENING...AND NE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON SAT ALLOWING FOR SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FOLLOW MODEL CONSENSUS...AND ALSO STICK CLOSE TO THE HPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON LOW/COLD FRONT TIMING AND PSNS. MODELS HAVE BACKED DOWN ON POSSIBLE GALE CONDITIONS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...SO WILL DROP HEADLINE FOR NW GULF AND FOR NOW KEEP IT IN THE SW GULF ZONE FOR FRI AS PRES GRADIENT SHOULD BE FAIRLY TIGHT NEAR THE MEXICAN TERRAIN UNDER NLY FUNNELING AFFECT TO ALLOW FOR WINDS TO REACH AT LEAST MINIMAL GALE FORCE THERE. HIGH PRES RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE SAT INTO SUN WHILE SLIDING EASTWARD AND ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME NE TO E AT 15-20 KT THROUGHOUT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT WAS OBSERVED AS REMNANT PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM 15N55W W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM 31N67W SW TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. S-SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N...WHILE SE-S WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE E OF THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE W TO NW 20 KT N OF 29N W TO NEAR 74W WITH NW TO N WINDS OF 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. N TO NE SWELLS RESULTING IN SEAS UP TO 8 FT OVER THE FAR SE WATERS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE FAR E WATERS WED AND DISSIPATE THU JUST SE OF THE AREA. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT E ACROSS ATLC JUST N OF FORECAST AREA MAINTAINING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENTS S OF 24N THROUGH END OF PERIOD. MODELS HINT THAT SLY FLOW THEN INCREASES TO 20 KT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS FRI INTO SAT AS GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF THE GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA COASTS ON SAT...AND REACHES A PSN FROM NEAR 30N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. EARLY MODEL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MAY POSSIBLE REACH GALE FORCE N OF 29N OR 30N ON SAT. SURGE OF NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SUN WITH S-SW WINDS OF 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF ABOUT 28N. NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE HINTS AS A LARGE NLY SWELL TRAIN PROPAGATING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT SUN WITH MAXIMUM SEAS PROBABLY OCCURRING OVER THE NE PORTION. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WAS DEPICTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS SCATTERED PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WNW TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA AND ALONG THE N COAST OF JAMAICA. POST FRONTAL NLY SWELLS HAVE SUBSIDED TO AROUND 8 FT PER BUOY OBSERVATIONS. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO AT LEAST SAT MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA SW 18N83W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS EARL THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE SHIFTED TO NE 20 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 8 FT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 15N77W WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS S INTO THE NW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SEA WITH NE TO E 20 KT WINDS OVER THOSE SECTIONS WITH 25 TO 30 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS THEN EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH FRI AS THE ATLC HIGH SHIFTS E...AND DIMINISH MOST ZONES SAT AS THE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WHICH MAY APPROACH THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN LATE SAT INTO SUN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED W OF FRONT FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE