000 AGXX40 KNHC 191920 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... 1021 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 27N86W REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E OVER FLORIDA TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE IN THE W GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MINIMAL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND THUS A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED (WINDS GENERALLY NW-N 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT). THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO 19N96W THU EVENING THEN WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO 19N92W BY EARLY FRI MORNING...THEN FROM KEY LARGO FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY FRI EVENING WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THEN INCREASES YET AGAIN OVER THE W GULF FRI NIGHT WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT EVENING. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS FRONT MODERATE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW-N AND INCREASING TO 25-30 KT W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR 21N97W EARLY SUN AND THEN FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO 18N94W BY SUN EVENING. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE PRES GRADIENT HAS INCREASED OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AS HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE SE CORNER OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. AN 1114 UTC WINDSAT PASS AND A 1404 UTC ASCAT PASS BOTH CAPTURED NE-E WINDS OF 20-30 KT OVER PRIMARILY THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE CONDITIONS REMAINING A LIKELY POSSIBILITY THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. TRADES WILL INCREASE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AS WELL WED THROUGH THU AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH BUILDS S-SE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT AND WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20 KT WED THROUGH THU. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FRI THROUGH SAT AND AS A RESULT THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX ALLOWING FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA ON SUN WHILE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES YET AGAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY LATE SUN. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT IS STRETCHED FROM NEAR 25N65W TO THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI WITH A TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS. A SECOND AND WEAKER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 29N65W TO 28N69W. THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH FRONTS HAVE SHIFTED E OF 65W AS INDICATED BY A 1402 UTC ASCAT PASS AS WELL AS BY THE LATEST BUOY AND SHIP OBS IN THE AREA. THE WESTERN FRONT WILL MERGE WITH ITS EASTERN COUNTERPART LATE TONIGHT INTO WED WITH THE TAIL END STALLING OUT FROM NEAR 26N65W TO THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY EARLY TUE AND THEN EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING EARLY WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SW N ATLC. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH E OF 65W BY LATE WED NIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO STRENGTHEN E OF THE FLORIDA COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS STILL PROG GALE FORCE CONDITIONS N OF 29N E OF THE FRONT BEGINNING LATE THU NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST LATE FRI NIGHT AND HAVE MAINTAINED SUCH HEADLINE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS FCST. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N80W TO JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA BY EARLY FRI AND FROM 31N72W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY FRI EVENING AND THEN FROM 29N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY EARLY SAT. THE LATEST GFS IS NOW INDICATING A CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE FRONT LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E OF 65W BY SUN NIGHT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 29N E OF FRONT THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... .GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W...AMZ084 AND AMZ086. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY