000 AGXX40 KNHC 181905 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EST MON JAN 18 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST E OF SE LOUISIANA WHERE IT WILL REMAIN TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E-SE TO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE IN THE W GULF TO 15-20 KT BY WED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. 12 UTC MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM...WITH EACH SOLUTION KEEPING THE LOW WELL INLAND OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MAINLY THE NORTHERN GULF. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH MINIMAL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-20 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KT SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO 20N95W THU EVENING...THEN FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 20N95W EARLY FRI. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE ON FRI WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES FRI EVENING THROUGH SAT IN THE W GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT NIGHT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF IT. THIS FEATURE WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES TO THE N SHIFTS TO THE E. ANOTHER FRONTAL TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING MAINLY E OF 70W. THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE EASTERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. MEANWHILE NE-E TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN REMAIN 20-25 KT EXCEPT UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS CONFIRMED BY EARLIER ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THE TRADES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE THEN WILL INCREASE WED THROUGH THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP AND INCREASES IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES BY TO THE N THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. TRADES WILL DIMINISH FRI THROUGH SAT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES BY N OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THEN INCREASES AGAIN IN THE NW CARIBBEAN BY LATE SAT AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO TREK THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING AHEAD OF IT. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT CONTINUE TO OCCUR OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 27N AS CONFIRMED BY A 1421 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THIS PASS ALSO CAPTURED W-NW 20 TO 30 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 26N. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE WATERS TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES E OF FLORIDA LATE WED NIGHT AND THU AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE MAIN LOW PRES CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WELL INLAND OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THU EVENING. GFS CONTINUES TO PROG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 30-40 KT E OF THE FRONT AND N OF 29N WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER ALTHOUGH STILL HAS 35 KT WINDS N OF 30N. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO BEGIN HEADLINING POSSIBLE GALES FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT 20-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N75W TO 27N79W EARLY FRI...FROM NEAR 27N65W TO THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA BY EARLY SAT...THEN PUSHES E OF 65W BY SAT EVENING. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY