000 AGXX40 KNHC 180729 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST MON JAN 18 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS OVER 20 KT AND SEAS OVER 8 FT HAVE SHRUNK TO THE NE QUARTER OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRES DOMINATE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF TUE AS A NEW SYSTEM EMERGES IN THE PLAINS. EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO PICK UP TO 20 KT IN THE WESTERN GULF WED AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE HIGH PRES TO THE E. THE MODELS AGREE ON TURNING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE. THEY HAVE ALSO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK PUSHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT AS A NEW SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW. HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME ISSUES WITH FEEDBACK. THIS TIME...IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE SE SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW WED NIGHT/THU MORNING OVER MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA/GEORGIA THAT APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM QUICKLY...SENDING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE OTHER MODELS INTO THE GULF AND ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BUILD TO GALE FORCE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF BRIEFLY THU MORNING. NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW WINDS TO GALE FORCE. THEREFORE...LEANED ON THE ECMWF WHICH HAS A SIMILAR SURFACE LOW TRACK BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE THE FEEDBACK ISSUES OF THE GFS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF FRI...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKING UP IN THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT PLAINS SYSTEM FRI EVENING. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS STALLED. WHILE THE PORTION OVER THE SW N ATLC IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E THROUGH CUBA AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY TUE WHERE IT WILL LINGER AT LEAST INTO THU AND BE THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS...THE PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRES TO ITS NORTH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES BY WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTING THE GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER E...THERE IS A DISSIPATING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN THAT CONTINUES TO BRING WARM CLOUD TOP SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE SHOWERS HERE SHOULD SLOWLY BREAK UP OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND BECOMES THE MAIN FOCUS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. EXPECT THE 1026 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 29N50W TO BE FORCED EASTWARD BY THIS COLD FRONT TODAY. THIS WILL BRING THE TRADES DOWN A NOTCH TODAY ONLY TO REBUILD TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ONCE AGAIN TO THE NORTH. THE 0154 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS TO 30 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH SHIP ZCDF4 NEAR 11.5N74W AT 0300 UTC CONFIRMING THE 30 KT WINDS AND SHOWING SEAS TO 12 FT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE 0158 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM 31N72W THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER N WATERS WILL MOVE E OUT OF THE AREA TODAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN END STALLS OVER THE FAR EASTERN BAHAMAS TO HAITI TUE THROUGH THU. WINDS TO 30 KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT OVER N WATERS TODAY...BUT EXPECT THE HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT TO BECOME THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUE WITH LIGHT FLOW AND NW SWELL SUBSIDING THROUGH WED. AS MENTIONED IN THE GULF SECTION...THE PREFERRED MODEL BECOMES THE ECMWF AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST THU. THIS PREFERENCE REMAINS TRUE WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CAROLINAS THU NIGHT...WITH THE GFS DECIDEDLY STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER