000 AGXX40 KNHC 151945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF IS SHIFTING E AS DEVELOPING LOW PRES TAKES PLACE OVER FAR S TEXAS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SPREADING ENE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE FAR W PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SEVERAL SHIP RESPONSE FROM THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SHOWING INCREASING WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS. AN OIL PLATFORM IN THE NW GULF LOCATED NEAR 28N94W REPORTED STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE GALE FORCE RANGE. BUT DUE TO IT BEING ABOUT 23 M ABOVE THE SEA SURFACE THE WIND REPORTS MOST LIKELY HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN WHAT ACTUALLY IS OCCURRING. MODEL RUNS FROM OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE LOW MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TRACK GENERALLY TO THE NE ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE TIMING MAY HAVE SLOWED A BIT. THE MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF AND REGIONAL NAM MODEL THAT THE LOW WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKS NE TO ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SAT EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET AND NAM PORTRAY IT CROSSING THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF SE LOUISIANA SAT AFTERNOON. GFS IS STILL THE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WINDS SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS SAT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE EASTERN GULF. THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH WINDS WHILE THE UKMET IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT TRACKS THE LOW INLAND FURTHER W OVER S CENTRAL LOUISIANA ON SAT AFTERNOON MUCH LIKE THE REGIONAL NAM IS FORECASTING TODAY WHERE YESTERDAY IT WAS FURTHER E WITH THE LOW MOVING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE WITH LOW TRACKING INLAND CLOSE TO SE LOUISIANA OR SW MISSISSIPPI COAST SAT AFTERNOON AS FORECAST BY MAJORITY OF THE MODELS...BUT FOR INTENSITY OF WINDS WILL USE A MEDIUM BETWEEN THE GFS ECMWF WITH GFS WINDS COVERAGE IN THE NORTHERN MIDDLE GULF AND A PORTION OF THE NW GULF N OF ABOUT 26N WHERE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG AS THE LOW INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRES TO N AND NE. WILL LEAVE E GULF OUT OF WARNING FOR NOW...BUT WILL MENTION S WINDS OF 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS GIVING LATER SHIFTS THE OPTION TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING PENDING UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SW TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY THIS EVENING ...AND TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY SAT EVENING. E TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW AND FRONT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE GULF THROUGH SUN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE GULF E OF THE LOW AND FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH E THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF AND ACROSS FLORIDA SUN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH OVER THE AREA LATE SUN THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. THE HIGH THEN MOVES TO THE FAR NE WATERS TUE AND TO E OF THE GULF WED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW GULF COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN SETS UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY WED. NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS TO NEAR 17 FT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF SAT AND NE GULF TOWARDS APALACHEE BAY ON SAT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DANGEROUS WAVE ACTION IN THE FAR NE GULF DURING SAT. SEAS ELSEWHERE BUILDING IN NW TO N SWELLS AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA REACHED GALE WARNING CRITERIA AS INDICATED BY SHIP "9HOB8" THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH MAX SEAS UP TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 74W AND 80W NE TO E WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE STILL NOTED DUE TO THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CREATED BETWEEN THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA. WINDS SLIGHTLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE ABOVE MENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT THEN MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY NW WINDS OF AROUND 20 KT...THEN WEAKEN TO N TO NE 10 TO 15 KT LATE SUN INTO MON. SEAS SHOULD BUILD UP TO 6 OR 7 FT ACROSS AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SUN INTO MON. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT JUST NW OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. N TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN BECOME NE TO E AND BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT SUN AS HIGH PRES TO THE N BUILDS SE. SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC SAT AND SUN BEFORE SUBSIDING MON THROUGH WED. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... WEAKER NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE N OF 26N E OF 68W WITH SUBSIDING N SWELLS OF UP TO 8 FT. OVER THE SE PORTION... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO NORTHEASTWARD WHILE HIGH PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS THE AREA. N-NE 20 KT WINDS ARE N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT N TO NEAR 24N WITH SEAS TO 8 FT...BUT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE E. N SWELLS OF UP TO 9 FT WILL PROPAGATE S TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OVER THE FAR W PORTION OF THE AREA BEGINNING LATE LATE FRI NIGHT AND INTO SAT NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRES SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKLY NE AND INLAND THE SE U.S. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ENSEMBLE GFS GUIDANCE...MUCH LIKE 24 HRS AGO...SUGGEST SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 29N BEGINNING LATE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING AND QUICKLY SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE AS THE FRONT THEN QUICKLY EXITS THE NE WATERS. WILL KEEP STATUS-QUO WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE E OF FRONT LATE SAT NIGHT...BUT WILL EXTEND THESE CONDITIONS THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SEA STATE HIGH AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE REMAINDER OF FRONT THEN WEAKENS OVER THE FAR SE WATERS MON AND TUE...WITH NW SWELLS SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVER THE NE WATERS. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT SW OF BAHAMAS BY MON...AND TO 1 TO 2 FT TUE AND WED. WARNINGS... ATLC... .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 29N E OF FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO MON ...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... .GALE WARNING FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W...AMZ084W. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING N OF 26N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W...GMZ080...AND BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...GMZ084W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 151945 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF IS SHIFTING E AS DEVELOPING LOW PRES TAKES PLACE OVER FAR S TEXAS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SPREADING ENE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE FAR W PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SEVERAL SHIP RESPONSE FROM THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SHOWING INCREASING WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS. AN OIL PLATFORM IN THE NW GULF LOCATED NEAR 28N94W REPORTED STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE GALE FORCE RANGE. BUT DUE TO IT BEING ABOUT 23M ABOVE THE SEA SURFACE THE WIND REPORTS MOST LIKELY HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN WHAT ACTUALLY IS OCCURRING. MODEL RUNS FROM OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE LOW MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TRACK GENERALLY TO THE NE ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE TIMING MAY HAVE SLOWED A BIT. THE MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF AND REGIONAL NAM MODEL THAT THE LOW WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKS NE TO ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SAT EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET AND NAM PORTRAY IT CROSSING THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF SE LOUISIANA SAT AFTERNOON. GFS IS STILL THE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WINDS SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS SAT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE EASTERN GULF. THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH WINDS WHILE THE UKMET IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT TRACKS THE LOW INLAND FURTHER W OVER S CENTRAL LOUISIANA ON SAT AFTERNOON MUCH LIKE THE REGIONAL NAM IS FORECASTING TODAY WHERE YESTERDAY IT WAS FURTHER E WITH THE LOW MOVING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE WITH LOW TRACKING INLAND CLOSE TO SE LOUISIANA OR SW MISSISSIPPI COAST SAT AFTERNOON AS FORECAST BY MAJORITY OF THE MODELS...BUT FOR INTENSITY OF WINDS WILL USE A MEDIUM BETWEEN THE GFS ECMWF WITH GFS WINDS COVERAGE IN THE NORTHERN MIDDLE GULF AND A PORTION OF THE NW GULF N OF ABOUT 26N WHERE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG AS THE LOW INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRES TO N AND NE. WILL LEAVE E GULF OUT OF WARNING FOR NOW...BUT WILL MENTION S WINDS OF 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS GIVING LATER SHIFTS THE OPTION TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING PENDING UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SW TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY THIS EVENING ...AND TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY SAT EVENING. E TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW AND FRONT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE GULF THROUGH SUN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE GULF E OF THE LOW AND FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH E THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF AND ACROSS FLORIDA SUN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH OVER THE AREA LATE SUN THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. THE HIGH THEN MOVES TO THE FAR NE WATERS TUE AND TO E OF THE GULF WED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW GULF COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN SETS UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY WED. NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS TO NEAR 17 FT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF SAT AND NE GULF TOWARDS APALACHEE BAY ON SAT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DANGEROUS WAVE ACTION IN THE FAR NE GULF DURING SAT. SEAS ELSEWHERE BUILDING IN NW TO N SWELLS AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA REACHED GALE WARNING CRITERIA AS INDICATED BY SHIP "9HOB8" THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH MAX SEAS UP TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 74W AND 80W NE TO E WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE STILL NOTED DUE TO THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CREATED BETWEEN THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA. WINDS SLIGHTLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE ABOVE MENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT THEN MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY NW WINDS OF AROUND 20 KT...THEN WEAKEN TO N TO NE 10 TO 15 KT LATE SUN INTO MON. SEAS SHOULD BUILD UP TO 6 OR 7 FT ACROSS AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SUN INTO MON. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT JUST NW OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. N TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN BECOME NE TO E AND BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT SUN AS HIGH PRES TO THE N BUILDS SE. SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC SAT AND SUN BEFORE SUBSIDING MON THROUGH WED. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... WEAKER NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE N OF 26N E OF 68W WITH SUBSIDING N SWELLS OF UP TO 8 FT. OVER THE SE PORTION... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO NORTHEASTWARD WHILE HIGH PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS THE AREA. N-NE 20 KT WINDS ARE N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT N TO NEAR 24N WITH SEAS TO 8 FT...BUT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE E. N SWELLS OF UP TO 9 FT WILL PROPAGATE S TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OVER THE FAR W PORTION OF THE AREA BEGINNING LATE LATE FRI NIGHT AND INTO SAT NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRES SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKLY NE AND INLAND THE SE U.S. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ENSEMBLE GFS GUIDANCE...MUCH LIKE 24 HRS AGO...SUGGEST SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 29N BEGINNING LATE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING AND QUICKLY SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE AS THE FRONT THEN QUICKLY EXITS THE NE WATERS. WILL KEEP STATUS-QUO WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE E OF FRONT LATE SAT NIGHT...BUT WILL EXTEND THESE CONDITIONS THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SEA STATE HIGH AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE REMAINDER OF FRONT THEN WEAKENS OVER THE FAR SE WATERS MON AND TUE...WITH NW SWELLS SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVER THE NE WATERS. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT SW OF BAHAMAS BY MON...AND TO 1 TO 2 FT TUE AND WED. WARNINGS... ATLC... .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 29N E OF FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO MON ...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... .GALE WARNING FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W...AMZ084W. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING N OF 26N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W...GMZ080...AND BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...GMZ084W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE