000 AGXX40 KNHC 141945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST THU JAN 14 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A 1027 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDS A RIDGE SW INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS ALLOWING FOR SLY FLOW TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE WESTERN THROUGH FRI WHILE INCREASING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. 12 UTC MODEL RUNS WERE FOR THE MOST PART IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON FRI...MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED WITH TO RESPECT TO TIMING AND PLACE WHERE IT MOVES BACK OVER LAND. ALL THE MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF AND REGIONAL NAM MODEL INDICATE THAT THE LOW WITH ASSOCIATED WARM AND COLD FRONTS MOVES TRACK NE TO ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SAT EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF/ UKMET AND NAM PORTRAY IT CROSSING THE COAST SOONER AND FURTHER W OVER SE LOUISIANA ON SAT AFTERNOON. GFS IS STILL SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST WITH THE WINDS NE OF LOW AND E OF COLD FRONT SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS SAT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE EASTERN GULF. THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF GALE WINDS...WHILE THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND REGIONAL NAM WITH THE FURTHER WESTWARD INLAND TRACK SHOW WINDS LESS THAN GALE FORCE EVEN THOUGH THE PRES OF THE LOW IS VERY NEAR TO THAT OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL LEAN CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OF MODELS WITH TRACK INLAND CLOSE TO SE LOUISIANA SAT NIGHT...BUT WILL USE THE GFS...TWEAKING JUST A LITTLE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF WINDS NOT AS MUCH AS THE ECMWF...AS GUIDANCE FOR AREAL COVERAGE OF GALE WINDS ON SAT WITH AREA TO BE AFFECTED IN THE MIDDLE N OF 27N WHERE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG AS THE LOW INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRES TO N AND NE. THE LOW THEN RAPIDLY MOVES NE OF THE GULF BY SUN WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM N FLORIDA SW TO YUCATAN CHANNEL BY SUN AFTERNOON...AND PUSHING E OF THE AREA LATE SUN. HIGH PRES THAN BUILDS E ACROSS THE GULF MON AND TUE WITH MUCH LIGHTER WIND AND SEAS CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE FAR NE GULF TUE...LIGHT RETURN SIGHTLY FLOW THEN SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF ZONE. NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS UP TO NEAR 14 OR 15 FT WITHIN THE AREA OF GALE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS ELSEWHERE BUILDING IN NW TO N SWELLS AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE HAS OCCURRED THROUGHOUT THIS AREA SINCE YESTERDAY AS FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS CONTINUE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CREATED BETWEEN THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND THE 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT REMAIN ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST ...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SAT AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE MENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT THEN MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY NW WINDS OF AROUND 20 KT...THEN WEAKEN TO N TO NE 10 TO 15 KT LATE SUN INTO MON. SEAS SHOULD BUILD UP TO 6 OR 7 FT ACROSS AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SUN INTO MON. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT JUST NW OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL BEGIN TO SAG SE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WHILE DISSIPATING. N TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN BECOME NE TO E AND BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT SUN AS HIGH PRES TO THE N BUILDS SE. SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC SAT AND SUN BEFORE SUBSIDING MON AND TUE. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... WEAKER NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE N OF 26N E OF 68W WITH SUBSIDING N SWELLS OF UP TO 8 FT. OVER THE SE PORTION... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO NORTHEASTWARD WHILE HIGH PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS THE AREA. N-NE 20 KT WINDS ARE N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT N TO NEAR 24N WITH SEAS TO 8 FT...BUT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE E. N SWELLS OF UP TO 9 FT WILL PROPAGATE S TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OVER THE FAR W PORTION OF THE AREA BEGINNING LATE LATE FRI NIGHT AND INTO SAT NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRES SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKLY NE AND INLAND THE SE U.S. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ENSEMBLE GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 28N BEGINNING LATE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING AND QUICKLY SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE AS THE FRONT THEN QUICKLY EXITS THE NE WATERS. WILL KEEP STATUS-QUO WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE E OF FRONT LATE SAT NIGHT...BUT WILL EXTEND THESE CONDITIONS THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SEA STATE HIGH AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE REMAINDER OF FRONT THEN WEAKENS OVER THE FAR SE WATERS MON AND TUE...WITH NW SWELLS SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVER THE NE WATERS. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT SW OF BAHAMAS BY MON...AND TO 1 TO 2 FT TUE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AMZ080 LATE SAT THROUGH MON N OF 28N E OF COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED GMZ084 FRI THROUGH SAT N OF 27N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE