000 AGXX40 KNHC 140715 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST THU JAN 14 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF REGION. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE MAINLY EWD TOWARDS THE WESTERN ATLC ALLOWING FOR SLY FLOW TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH FRI WHILE INCREASING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATED THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE NW GULF WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI NIGHT AND WARM FRONT FROM THE LOW SE INTO THE CENTRAL MIDDLE GULF. THE LOW THEN RAPIDLY MOVES NE OF THE GULF SAT NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY SAT NIGHT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW AND FRONT BEGINNING THU...AND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE GULF INTO SAT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO LARGE VALUES. POSSIBLE WINDS TO GALE FORCE MAY BE SEEN IN THE NE AND SE QUADRANTS OF THE LOW WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES TO THE E. WINDS AND SEAS THEN DIMINISH OVER MUCH OF THE GULF LATE SAT THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS UP TO NEAR 14 FT WITHIN THE AREA OF GALE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS ELSEWHERE BUILDING IN NW TO N SWELLS. WINDS AND SEAS THEN DIMINISH SUN INTO MON AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CREATED BETWEEN THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND THE HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE NOTED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS JUST BEHIND A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN PUERTO RICO TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N82W. THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY NW WINDS OF AROUND 20 KT...THEN WEAKEN TO N TO NE 10 TO 15 KT LATE SUN INTO MON. SEAS SHOULD BUILD UP TO 6 OR 7 FT ACROSS AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SUN INTO MON. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE FRONT WILL SAG SE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. N TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN BECOME NE TO E AND BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT SUN AS HIGH PRES TO THE N BUILDS SE. SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC SAT AND SUN BEFORE SUBSIDING MON. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS STILL AFFECTING THE FAR SE PORTION EXTENDING FROM 20N65W TO WESTERN PUERTO RICO. NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE WITHIN 180 NM BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SEAS UP TO 10 FT IN N SWELL. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE FAR W PORTION OF THE AREA BEGINNING LATE FRI THROUGH SUN. LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SHOWS SOUTHERLY GALE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE SAT INTO SUN WITH THESE SHIFTING QUICKLY EASTWARD ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH MON. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE FAR NE PORTION LATE MON...BUT SEAS REMAIN LARGE IN NW TO N SWELL. WINDS WILL RATHER LIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT SW OF BAHAMAS BY MON. WARNINGS... ATLC... .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AMZ080 LATE SAT INTO SUN N OF 28N E OF COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED GMZ084 N OF 27N SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR/JA