000 AGXX40 KNHC 131945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST WED JAN 13 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDS A RIDGE SW INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS ALLOWING FOR SLY FLOW TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE WESTERN THROUGH FRI WHILE INCREASING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATED THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE NW GULF WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WARM FRONT FROM THE LOW SE INTO THE CENTRAL MIDDLE GULF. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK ENE REACHING THE MIDDLE GULF BY SAT MORNING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF FRI...AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING SAT. WITH RESPECT TO MODEL SOLNS...THE 12 UTC GFS IS SIMILAR TO 12 UTC ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO LOW TRACKING NE TOWARDS SE LOUISIANA BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUN EVENING. GFS IS STRONGER WITH WINDS N OF LOW AND E OF COLD FRONT SHOWING GALE FORCE FRI THROUGH SAT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF AND THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE EASTERN GULF...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE AND MORE SIMILAR TO THE NAM WITH BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF GALE WINDS. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL LEAN CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR FORECAST TRACK OF LOW AND INTENSITY...BUT WILL USE THE ECMWF AND NAM AS GUIDANCE FOR AREAL COVERAGE OF GALE WINDS FRI THROUGH SAT WITH AREA TO BE AFFECTED IN THE MIDDLE N OF 27N WHERE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG AS THE LOW INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRES TO N AND NE. THE LOW THEN RAPIDLY MOVES NE OF THE GULF BY SUN WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM N FLORIDA SW TO YUCATAN CHANNEL BY SUN AFTERNOON...AND PUSHING E OF THE AREA LATE SUN. WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS UP TO NEAR 13 FT WITHIN THE AREA OF GALE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS ELSEWHERE BUILDING IN NW TO N SWELLS. WINDS AND SEAS THEN DIMINISH SUN INTO MON AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE HAS OCCURRED THROUGHOUT THIS AREA SINCE YESTERDAY AS FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS CONTINUE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CREATED BETWEEN THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND THE 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT REMAIN ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST ...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE SAT. THE ABOVE MENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO THEN MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY NW WINDS OF AROUND 20 KT...THEN WEAKEN TO N TO NE 10 TO 15 KT LATE SUN INTO MON. SEAS SHOULD BUILD UP TO 6 OR 7 FT ACROSS AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SUN INTO MON. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT JUST NW OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL SAG SE THROUGH THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. N TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN BECOME NE TO E AND BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT SUN AS HIGH PRES TO THE N BUILDS SE. SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC SAT AND SUN BEFORE SUBSIDING MON. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT FROM IS CLIPPING THE N PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA... MAINLY N OF 28N WITH WINDS TO 20-25 KT AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF 65W TONIGHT. HIGH PRES REBUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TODAY THROUGH FRI...WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST LATE FRI THROUGH SAT...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHIFTS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST LATE SAT. SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL EXPECTED BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT RAISING SEAS TO 14 FT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AMZ080 LATE SAT INTO SUN N OF 28N W OF 75W. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED GMZ084 FRI THROUGH SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE