000 AGXX40 KNHC 130729 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST WED JAN 13 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SE ARKANSAS NEAR 34N91W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MODERATE BREEZE AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER NE TO E TODAY WITH A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE FAR SW GULF. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT OVER THE WESTERN GULF THU INTO FRI. MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ON FRI AS A LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF. GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A DEEPENING LOW WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW...AND ALSO IN THE NW-WLY FLOW BEHIND IT. THE GFS MODEL MOVES THE LOW PRES E-NE TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SAT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 14 FT IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS TYPICAL FOR THIS REGION DURING EL NINO YEAR. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PANAMANIAN/COLOMBIAN LOW AND THE 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE BLOWING JUST OFFSHORE THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF NICARAGUA. ANOTHER AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IS NOTED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS NE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS VEERING NE TO E AND DIMINISHING THU WHILE EASTERLY TRADES INCREASE ACROSS THE S AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT. A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE E-SE EXTENDING FROM 22N55W TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THU MORNING. NE WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS OF AROUND 8 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH. MODERATE TRADES CAN BE FOUND ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WHERE THE ATLC RIDGE IS WEAKENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT/FRONTAL TROUGH. A MIX OF NW...NE...AND ELY TRADE WIND SWELL WILL DOMINATE SEAS THERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT IS CLIPPING THE N PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA... MAINLY N OF 28N WITH WINDS TO 20-25 KT AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF 65W TONIGHT. HIGH PRES REBUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TODAY THROUGH FRI...WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST LATE FRI THROUGH SAT...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHIFTS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST LATE SAT. SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL EXPECTED BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT RAISING SEAS TO 14 FT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AMZ080 LATE SAT INTO SUN N OF 28N W OF 75W. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED GMZ080-GMZ082-GMZ084 FRI AND GMZ084-GMZ086 SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR