000 AGXX40 KNHC 111937 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST MON JAN 11 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... 1036 MB HIGH HAS SETTLED SE...AND WAS CENTERED OVER S CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO HISPANIOLA. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE E-SE ALONG THE GULF COASTS NEXT FEW DAYS AND REACH JUST NE OF THE NW BAHAMAS BY TUE MORNING. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT HAS SHIFTED S AND SE INTO THE CARIBBEAN...WITH FRESH NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND LIKELY STILL ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF...INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS ACROSS THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING A FEW HOURS BEHIND. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH WED AS AN ELONGATED RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE N GULF...AND WINDS GRADUALLY VEER NE TO E TUE. A REINFORCING AND BENIGN FRONT WILL MOVE S ACROSS THE GULF TUE NIGHT TO INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS SLIGHT. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT OVER THE WESTERN GULF THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A DEEPENING LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF FRI AND PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW...AND ALSO IN THE NW-WLY FLOW BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE TRAJECTORY AND SIZE OF THIS LOW AND WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACT ON FRI-SAT FORECAST. THE GFS SOLUTION OF A MORE ELY TRACK WOULD BE MORE OMINOUS FOR GULF COAST INTERESTS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... STRONG PRES GRADIENT AND UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NW AND WRN CARIBBEAN BEHIND A FRONTAL ZONE THAT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE ERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE NW COAST OF COSTA RICA. THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO OCCUR JUST OFFSHORE THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF NICARAGUA EXTENDING TO NEAR THE FRONT...WHERE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10-15 FT. THE BROAD AREA OF 20-30 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED A LARGE AREA OF SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE NW CARIB THAT IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING S INTO THE SW CARIB. AFTER SOME DATA OVERNIGHT SUGGESTING THAT WINDS WERE BELOW GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT...SHIP "9HXD9" HAS BEEN REPORTING WINDS IN EXCESS OF GALE FORCE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE COAST OF NICARAGUA ALL MORNING...AND THE GALE WARNING WAS REINSTATED. ALSO...A RECENT ASCAT-HI PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN REVEALS WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE SEVERAL DEGREES E OF WHERE THE STRONGEST NLY WINDS SHOULD BE OCCURRING. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND DIMINISH TO 25-30 KT BEFORE SUNSET. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY BACK TOWARDS THE NW TUE AND GRADUALLY BREAK UP...WHILE THE NRN PORTION OF THIS FRONT ACROSS THE ATLC CONTINUES TO MOVE SE. FRESH NELY WINDS WILL PERSIST NW OF THE FRONT THROUGH WED...THEN WILL DIMINISH THU WITH EASTERLY TRADES INCREASING ACROSS THE S AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF AREA. MODERATE TRADES CAN BE FOUND ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WHERE THE ATLC RIDGE IS WEAKENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT IN THE SW N ATLC. A MIX OF NW...NE...AND ELY TRADE WIND SWELL WILL DOMINATE SEAS THERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ELY TRADES WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY WED AS A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY TO THE N AND THEN DIMINISH N OF 10N THU AND FRI AS A WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE PREVAILS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... ATLC COLD FRONT HAS REORGANIZED OVERNIGHT SE OF BERMUDA AS THE SECONDARY LOW HAS DEVELOPED TO THE NW...A 1009 MB LOW...JUST SW OF BERMUDA. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NEAR 31N58W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WHERE A MESO LOW LOOKS TO HAVE DEVELOPED. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SECONDARY LOW AND INTO THE SE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD ZONE OF 25-30 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT W OF 67/68W TO THE NW 78W...WITH MINIMAL GALES LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE SW QUAD OF THIS SECONDARY LOW N OF 28N BETWEEN 65-70W. SEAS ARE RUNNING 9-12 FT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND 13-FT IN THE ZONE OF GALES. THE LOW WILL MOVE E-NE AND OUT OF AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TRAILING COLD BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND PUSHING SE AND INTO THE MONA PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE/ARE LIKELY TWO DIFFERING BOUNDARIES WITH THIS FRONTAL ZONE...WITH THE LEADING DYING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE N COAST OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND REACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY EARLY TUE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO EARLY WED...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE N PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUE THROUGH WED...MOVING E OF 65W BY WED NIGHT. HIGH PRES REBUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS WED THROUGH THU. WARNINGS... ATLC... .GALE WARNING AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... .GALE WARNING AMZ084. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING