000 AGXX40 KNHC 101942 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... 1040 MB HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT S-SE AND INTO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...AND FORECAST TO MOVE TO SE LOUISIANA WITHIN 24 HOURS. STRONG GRADIENT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NLY WINDS OF 25-30 KT ACROSS THE SE GULF AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND LIKELY STILL ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF ALONG THE COAST...WITH 20-25 KT FLOW DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NW. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE HALF...AND SW PORTION OF THE GULF THIS MORNING...WITH BUOY 42003 NOW 10-11 FT...AND MEXICAN BUOY BMO IN WHAT WE REFER TO AS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAVING DROPPED TO AROUND 25 KT AND 4 METERS IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. WINDS AND ASSOCIATED 10-15 FT SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT THROUGH WED AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES TOWARD SE LOUISIANA. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT OVER THE WESTERN GULF THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... STRONG PRES GRADIENT AND UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE BAHAMAS AND NW CARIBBEAN HAS LIKELY YIELDED GALE FORCE WINDS JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT YDA...AS PERIODS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IN FACT...A 1530 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE SE TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND JUST S OF CAPE CANAVERAL...WITH A SLIGHT LOW BIAS LIKELY AT THESE VELOCITIES WITH ASCAT. BUOY 42056 IN THE W CARIB HAS RISEN STEADILY TO 11 FT...AND 42057 IN THE W CENTRAL CARIB NOW 14-15 FT. NLY FLOW CAN BE SEEN IN STLT IMAGERY DAMMING UP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND A CHANGE IN AIR MASS HAS MOVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE EPAC. THIS STRONG NLY FLOW FUNNELING ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING TO GALE FORCE AND LAST THROUGH 12 UTC MON...WHILE THE FRONT...CURRENTLY WINDWARD PASSAGE TO COSTA RICA...SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SE ACROSS THE SW CARIB...AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS 20-30 KT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON EVENING BEFORE THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AND WINDS GRADUALLY VEER MORE NE TO E. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY TUE AS IT INCHES INTO THE MONA PASSAGE...TRAILING S-SW INTO THE NW/W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO NE WINDS WILL PERSIST NW OF THE FRONT THROUGH WED...THEN WILL DIMINISH THU WITH EASTERLY TRADES INCREASING ACROSS THE S AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF AREA. HIGH PRES RIDGE DOMINATES THE E AND CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLC AND WILL MAINTAIN MODEST TRADES E OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE BEFORE THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TO YIELD MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADES. LONG PERIOD NWLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THIS REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE WEEK. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... ATLC COLD FRONT EXTENDS 31N57W TO THE ERN WINDWARD PASSAGE BAHAMAS AND ACROSS JAMAICA WITH STRONG N-NW FLOW PAST 24 HOURS BEHIND IT OFF OF FLORIDA...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO CUBA. A 1530 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE SE TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND JUST S OF CAPE CANAVERAL...DECREASING TO WIDESPREAD 25-30 KT FLOW W OF 75W FROM CUBA N TO CAPE HATTERAS. UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL ZONE WAS YIELDING LOW STRATUS DECKS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...AND PATCHY STEAM FOG OVER THE WARM WATERS YESTERDAY PER MY VISUAL OBSERVATIONS FROM MIAMI BEACH. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA STRAITS BEFORE COLDEST AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT WITH MID TO UPPER SUPPORT MON-TUE. NW-N WINDS OF 20-30 KT WILL PREVAIL N OF 20N W OF 70W THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 14 FT IN N TO NW SWELL. MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG A SHALLOW BAROCLINIC LEAD BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG 30/31N...BUT ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT TO EXACT LOCATION...SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 70W AND 65W...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY INDUCE NW GALES IN W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW AND BEARS WATCHING. AT PRESENT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED GALES IN LOCAL ATLC WATERS. THE LOW WILL MOVE E-NE AND OUT OF AREA TO NEAR 32N58W LATE MON WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA BY MON MORNING. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE N PORTION OF THE AREA LATE TUE THROUGH WED...MOVING E OF 65W BY WED NIGHT. HIGH PRES REBUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS WED THROUGH THU. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .GALE WARNING AMZ084. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING