000 AGXX40 KNHC 080805 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 305 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A SHALLOW COLD FRONT IS MOVING S ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM THE FAR SW GULF NEARING 20N DIAGONALLY NE TO NEAR APALACHICOLA...FOLLOWED BY 20 TO 30 KT NLY FLOW...AND GALES W OF 93W. THE STRONGEST OF THIS FLOW WAS FUNNELING S INTO THE W GULF AND HAS ALREADY GENERATED SEAS JUST OFF SHORE OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST OF 10-12 FT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH A POSITION FROM ROUGHLY 29N83W TO 20N93.5W THEN S INTO MEXICO BY 12Z THIS MORNING...THEN FROM NEAR NAPLES TO NEAR THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS EVENING...THEN SWEEP SE OF THE BASIN ON SAT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GALE FORCE FROM JUST OFF THE COASTS TO 93W...FROM S TEXAS TO S OF VERACRUZ THROUGH SAT. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF AS WELL...WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 12 TO 18 FT IN N SWELL OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF. HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUN THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACCORDINGLY. SEAS WILL LAG THE WINDS BUT SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN N SWELL OVER THE SE GULF BY LATE MON. LIGHT TO MODERATE N TO NE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF BY TUE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE EXTENDED SW ACROSS PUERTO RICO...CONTINUING WSW TO THE NE COAST OF NICARAGUA...WITH SCATTERED EMBEDDED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED TSTMS. A SHARP LOW LEVEL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM NEAR THE CAYMANS TO THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA...INDUCING A WEAKENING AND BACKING WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIB. A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS WILL DRIFT E INTO THE ATLC THIS MORNING THEN ELONGATE INTO A WEAK RIDGE W TO E ALONG 26/27N THROUGH TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO DIMINISH TEMPORARILY...BUT ALSO ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE ELSEWHERE...PRIMARILY OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY EARLY SAT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH S...REACHING A POSITION FROM SE CUBA TO NE NICARAGUA BY EARLY SUN...FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO COSTA RICA BY EARLY MON...THEN STALLING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO WESTERN PANAMA BY EARLY TUE. WINDS MAY REACH NEAR GALE FORCE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SAT NIGHT...AND W OF 85W FROM HONDURAS TO PANAMA SUN INTO TUE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SEAS BUILDING IN EXPOSED AREAS TO 12 TO 15 FT IN N SWELL W OF 80W. STRONG NELY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL MON INTO TUE. AS THE FRONT DRAGS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND WILL LIKELY GENERATE ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF TSTMS AND SQUALLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THESE MOUNTAINOUS ISLANDS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... BUOY AND ASCAT OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS DIMINISHING OVER THE REGION AS THE 1022 MB HIGH CENTER IS MOVING E OFF FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLC. BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS 7 TO 10 FT IN N TO NW SWELL OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE HIGH PRES SLIDES E...BUT NWLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SEAS E OF 72W. SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA MAINLY N OF 25N AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST EARLY TODAY. THE FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY SAT...AND FROM 31N60W TO SE CUBA BY EARLY SUN. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 30N65W BY LATE SUN. EXPECT WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS LOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE LOW WILL LIFT OUT MON AHEAD OF HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM THE WEST ALONG 30N. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH N OF 22N...WITH FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE S OF 22N. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE WITH N SWELL. WARNINGS... ATLC... .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 29N SUN. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED GMZ080-082 W OF 93W TONIGHT AND GMZ082 S OF 21N W OF 95W FRI AND SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING