000 AGXX40 KNHC 310654 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST THU DEC 31 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A 1015 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 30N90W JUST N OF SLIDELL LOUISIANA...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW TO 26N93W TO 21N97W. SHIP WITH CALL SIGN BURL1 JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR THE SE COAST OF LOUISIANA HAS BEEN REPORTING S-SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT. ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF VARIABLE WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS PREVAIL. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO THE E THROUGH THE GULF REACHING FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS BY THIS EVENING. A SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHES S ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF BY LATE TONIGHT THEN CONTINUING THROUGH FRI...WITH WINDS NEAR 30 KT NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF SAT THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN OVER THE DEEP SOUTH U.S. STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE NOW DEVELOPS A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE SE TEXAS AND MEXICAN COASTS ON SUN...WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH MON WITH HIGH PRES PREVAILING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC INTO THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN FROM NEAR 22N52W TO 18N63W TO 17N67W. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS IN THE LEE OF THE NE CARIBBEAN/ATLC PASSAGES WITH THE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE EXPOSED PASSAGES...AS REPORTED BY SEVERAL SHIPS IN THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE STALLING ALONG 17N BY TONIGHT... THEN WILL DISSIPATE ON FRI. LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 12 FT WILL PUSH INTO THE ATLC PASSAGES TODAY THROUGH FRI...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 15 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC N OF 18N. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY SAT THROUGH SUN...WITH A NEW SET OF NORTHERLY SWELL ARRIVING ON MON. MEANWHILE 1031 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER PRIMARILY THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FRI THROUGH SAT AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE FRI NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY 20-25 KT NORTHERLY FLOW. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SE SUN THROUGH MON TOWARD THE SW CARIBBEAN...REACHING FROM NEAR THE SW COAST OF HAITI TO 13N83W BY LATE MON NIGHT. TRADES OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS INCREASE SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SHIFTS S AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... 1031 MB HIGH PRES E OF THE N CAROLINA COAST WILL SHIFT TO THE SE TO NEAR BERMUDA BY THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS STARTING TO INCREASE IN THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS...ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF LOW PRES ADVANCING E-NE FROM THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TO THE CAROLINAS. 20-25 KT SE TO S WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT BUOYS OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA TO THE N NEAR LONG BAY OFF THE NE S CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING IN THE RETURN FLOW RIGHT ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH E BY THE AFTERNOON...REACHING FROM NEAR 31N75W TO 28N78W BY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT...REACHING FROM NEAR 31N72W TO EASTERN CUBA BY FRI EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY N OF 24N...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE TO GALE FORCE N OF 28N FRI THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE LATEST SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH 30-40 KT FCST ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS PUSH E OF 65W BY EARLY SAT MORNING...THEN E OF 55W BY SAT EVENING. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FT NEAR THE BAHAMAS TO 28 FT E OF BERMUDA WILL PUSH TO THE SE BEHIND THE FRONT SAT THROUGH SUN. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA SUN NIGHT INTO MON...DELIVERING A NEW ROUND OF STRONG W TO NW WINDS PRIMARILY N OF 24N THROUGH MON NIGHT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE WARNING FRI THROUGH FRI NIGHT N OF 28N AHEAD OF FRONT. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY