000 AGXX40 KNHC 280654 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST MON DEC 28 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK 1014 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS NEAR 26N85W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 22N87W...OR NEAR THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A 0232 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED 20 KT N-NE WINDS IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE E THIS MORNING...DISSIPATING AS THEY CROSS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ANOTHER TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE E COAST OF MEXICO FROM NEAR 24N97.5W TO 19N95.5W. MEANWHILE HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS WITH N-NE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. WINDS DECREASE TO 10-15 KT AND TURN TO THE NE-E TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES ...WHILE THE TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE N TO OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY TUE NIGHT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 28.5N96W TO 21N97W. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH BY 00 UTC THU NEAR 29N90W WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 21N97W. THE LOW AND TROUGH CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE E WITH THE LOW HUGGING THE N GULF COAST...REACHING TO NEAR 30N86W TO 20N96W BY EARLY THU MORNING. THE LOW AND TROUGH THEN CROSS OVER FLORIDA ON THU AS STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF. N-NE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER THE WARMER GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A WEAK TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM NEAR 23N80W TO 20.5N85W. THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES OCCURRING. ONLY EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE N-NE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE PERSIST. HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND AS A RESULT THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH TRADES INCREASING TO 15-20 KT OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TUE THROUGH THU...WITH THE GRADIENT WEAKENING BY FRI. MEANWHILE LONG PERIOD NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN...WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKING BETWEEN 10-12 FT IN THE PASSAGES TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...THE LARGE N-NE SWELL UP TO 16 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE BASIN TODAY THROUGH TUE...GRADUALLY DECAYING WED THROUGH THU. MEANWHILE...A 0046 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED NE-E TRADES IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE S OF 14S WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. THE TRADES STRENGTHEN TO 20 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS...THEN WILL RELAX ON FRI WITH WINDS DECREASING. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT IS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N69W TO 25N76W...WITH A SECONDARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N73W TO 28N76W. SE TO S WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE N OF 25N CONTINUE OUT AHEAD OF THE EASTERN FRONT...AS NOTED BY A 0232 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE FRONTS WILL MERGE TONIGHT REACHING FROM NEAR 31N66W TO 22N71W BY 00 UTC TUE...THEN TO NEAR 31N56W TO 22N65W BY 00 UTC WED. A REINFORCING BLAST OF COLD AIR ARRIVES OVER THE BASIN LATE THIS MORNING...AND AS A RESULT W TO NW WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT N OF 26N AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE WARMER ATLC WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT BY WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM THE CAROLINAS OVER THE BASIN. A TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA COAST ON WED WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH WED NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS FCST TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH JUST N OF 31N AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY E TO OVER THE GULF STREAM...EXTENDING FROM NEAR 33N77W TO 30N81W BY 12 UTC THU. THE LOW DEEPENS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...REACHING TO NEAR 34N75W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 31N77W TO 24N80W BY 12 UTC FRI. COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH W-NW INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TO THE 20-25 KT RANGE BY LATE FRI. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY