000 AGXX40 KNHC 260657 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED E-SE OF THE GULF WATERS WITH HIGH PRES IN PLACE BEHIND IT. ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASSES INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT...ALTHOUGH STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING 8 FT SEAS E OF 89W. A 1012 MB AREA OF LOW PRES AND TROUGH AXIS ARE FCST TO FORM IN THE W GULF JUST OFFSHORE OF TEXAS/NE MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN WILL DRIFT TO THE E WITH THE LOW NEAR 25.5N87W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 24N89W TO 22N88W BY 00 UTC MON. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW/FRONT INCREASE TO 20-25 KT. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN WITH A REMNANT TROUGH AXIS MOVING E OF THE GULF BY MON AFTERNOON...AS STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER INTERIOR TEXAS RIDGES INTO THE GULF. THIS RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF THROUGH TUE...ALTHO MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW IN THE FAR W GULF MON THROUGH TUE...THEN MOVE IT NE-E TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. GFS PROGS A SMALL AREA OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WHILE THE ECMWF FCSTS A WEAKER SYSTEM. WILL CAP WINDS AT 30 KT FOR NOW UNTIL MODEL CONSENSUS ARISES. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT IS IN THE NW GULF NEAR 22N81W TO 19N84W TO 16N85W. A 0312 UTC ASCAT PASS STILL INDICATED A FEW 20 KT WIND BARBS BEHIND THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY EARLY MORNING AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ALONG 20N WITH 20-25 KT NE-E WINDS CAPTURED BY A 0132 UTC ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY MON WITH HIGH PRES TO THE N ALONG 31N. ALSO NE-E WINDS NEAR 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE JUST N OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH LOW PRES LOCATED INLAND. OTHERWISE...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN THROUGH MON...WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC TUE AND WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES TO NEAR 31N35W. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED E OFF THE FLORIDA COAST LOCATED NEAR 31N77W TO 23N81W. BUOY AND SHIP OBS REPORTING 20-30 KT WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT. E OF THE FRONT A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS IN PLACE WITH E-SE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR 31N72W TO 25N77W BY 00 UTC SUN... THEN TO NEAR 31N70W TO 23N77W BY 00 UTC MON. A REINFORCING UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THE FRONT E TO NEAR 30N65W TO 24N74W BY 00 UTC TUE...AND THEN TO NEAR 31N55W TO 22N70W BY 00 UTC WED. COLDER AIR SURGES IN OVER THE WARMER ATLC WATERS BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH NW-N WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF 25N MON THROUGH WED... WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAIN IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...LARGE NE SWELLS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 20 FT ALONG 55W BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 12 FT BY WED. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY