000
AGXX40 KNHC 240702
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 AM EST THU DEC 24 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W

GULF OF MEXICO...
BUOY REPORTS AND ASCAT DATA FROM AROUND 0400 UTC INDICATE SE 
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT W OF 90W AND E TO SE WINDS WITH THE SAME 
SPEED E OF 90W. THE WINDS ARE INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF A 
DEEPENING LOW PRES AREA MOVING FROM W TEXAS THROUGH THE MID 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE 
TEXAS COAST INTO THE NW GULF THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF A 
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL 
DELIVER STRONG NW WINDS REACHING BRIEFLY GALE FORCE IN THE 
OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL 
CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THU NIGHT AND FRI...ALTHOUGH SLOWING DOWN 
AS THE MAIN MID TO UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT TO THE GREAT LAKES. 
THE FRONT EVENTUALLY SAGS SE OF THE AREA BY EARLY SAT. FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO FRI 
OVER THE NW GULF...WITH 20 KT WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN 
GULF...INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AS WELL AS OVER THE EASTERN 
GULF REGION. BUOY REPORTS ALSO INDICATE SEAS IN THE 8 TO 11 FT 
RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF DUE TO THE STRONG SLY WINDS. SEAS 
OF 8 TO 11 FT REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN WILL GRADUALLY 
SUBSIDE TO BELOW 8 FT FROM W TO E LATE FRI INTO SAT. A TROUGH OR 
WEAK LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FAR SW GULF SUN INTO MON. NE 
TO E WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MON OVER THE GULF BETWEEN THE WEAK 
TROUGH...AND HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
A 1009 MB LOW PRES AREA CENTERED OFF SW HAITI WILL PUSH NNE 
THROUGH THE SE PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC TO A POSITION NEAR 
24N65W THIS EVENING. WINDS TO UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE LOW OVER THE 
N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW 
MOVES N. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE 
CONVERGING INTO THE LOW PRES. 20 KT SE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER 
THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE TODAY...BUT CONTINUE TO 
DIMINISH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. N SWELL WILL START 
TO PUSH INTO THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES SUN...WITH WAVE 
HEIGHTS TO 8 FT AND PERIOD TO 12 SECONDS. A SECOND SET WILL 
FOLLOW MON INTO TUE...REACHING 9 FT WITH 14 SECOND PERIODS. OVER 
THE NW CARIBBEAN...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL SAT...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM CENTRAL CUBA 
TO SOUTHERN YUCATAN BY LATE SUN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
TO AROUND 20 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE FRI THROUGH MON.
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC 
ROUGHLY ALONG 21N. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OF 15-16 SECONDS IS 
AFFECTING THE ENTIRE AREA. A NEW BATCH OF NE SWELL WILL ENTER 
THIS REGION FRI EVENING.

SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 21N55W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 
19N71W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0215 UTC 16Z ALONG WITH SHIP 
AND BUOY REPORTS SHOW TRADE WINDS INCREASING IN A BROAD SWATH N 
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N. THE WINDS AREA INCREASING AHEAD 
OF A DEEPENING 1007 MB LOW PRES AREA MOVING NNE INTO THE 
REGION FROM THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE LOW WILL REACH A 
POSITION NEAR 24N65W THIS EVENING...THEN WILL BE ABSORBED BY A 
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SE OF BERMUDA FRI 
EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN N FLORIDA 
AND BERMUDA FRI...WITH A BROAD ARC OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON 
ITS PERIPHERY FROM BERMUDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. SE TO S 
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS AS 
WELL... AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF N FLORIDA COAST FRI 
AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT AS IT 
TRAVERSES THE WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA THROUGH LATE 
SUN. THE FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM 31N74W TO THE STRAITS 
OF FLORIDA BY SAT EVENING...AND FROM 31N67W TO THE CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS BY SUN EVENING. A NEW ROUND OF NORTHERLY SWELL WITH 
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 16 FT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY 
INTO FRI. 
 
WARNINGS...

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.GALE WARNING NW GULF...ZONE GMZ080.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER GR/EC