000 AGXX40 KNHC 230717 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST WED DEC 23 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... BUOY REPORTS FROM THE WESTERN GULF ALONG WITH AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0416Z INDICATE SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE GULF REGION W OF 94W...BETWEEN A SFC RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS AND DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THU MORNING WHEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF THU. THE FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM MOBILE BAY TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BY THU EVENING...THEN WILL MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY FRI EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THIS WEEKEND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW HAITI THROUGH JAMAICA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N80W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW PRES STARTING TO FORM SW OF JAMAICA ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN TODAY AND SHIFT NE TOWARD EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN ABOUT 24 HOUR...THEN WILL AFFECT THE SE BAHAMAS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU AS THE LOW SHIFTS NE. A RECENT ASCAT PASS IS ALREADY SHOWING SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 70W AND 75W WHILE SOME SHIPS REPORTS INDICATE SE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT IN THE SAME AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI NIGHT...THEN WILL STALL. A SECOND PUSH WILL MOVE THE FRONT SE REACHING A POSITION FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA TO N OF PUERTO RICO DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA. AN ASCAT DATA WITH RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF 24N. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH WED AND THE AREA OF STRONG TRADES WILL EXPAND N THROUGH WED...AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE CARIBBEAN. FORECAST CALLS FOR A 1007 MB LOW PRES AREA OVER THE SE BAHAMAS BY THU MORNING. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE RIDGE TO THE N WILL ALSO PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TODAY AND THU. SE TO S FLOW WILL INCREASE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST FRI...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST FRI NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY FRESH NW FLOW. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST AND REACH A POSITION FROM 31N76W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY SAT NIGHT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR/EC