000 AGXX40 KNHC 221901 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... BUOY REPORTS FROM THE WESTERN GULF ALONG WITH AN ASCAT PASS FROM 13Z INDICATE SE WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE...BETWEEN 1025 MB HIGH PRES OVER S GEORGIA...AND DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT MAINLY W OF 90W THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TEXAS. THE SE FLOW INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AS WELL AS THE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NW GULF WED NIGHT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF THU. THE FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM MOBILE BAY TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BY THU EVENING...THEN WILL MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY FRI EVENING BEFORE SWEEPING SE OF THE AREA SAT. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THIS WEEKEND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW HAITI TO 17N78W TO 12N80W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW PRES STARTING TO FORM SW OF JAMAICA ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THROUGH WED AND SHIFT NE TOWARD EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU AS THE LOW SHIFTS NE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND REACH A POSITION FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS BY SUN MORNING...FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA TO N OF PUERTO RICO. WINDSAT AND ASCAT DATA FROM 11Z ALONG WITH RECENT BUOY DATA SHOW STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN A BROAD SWATH N OF THE RIDGE AXIS MAINLY N OF 25N E OF 70W. FRESH TRADES ARE ALSO EVIDENT S OF THE AXIS JUST TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH WED...PUSHING THE SWATH OF STRONG NW WINDS FURTHER INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE AREA OF STRONG TRADES WILL EXPAND N HOWEVER THROUGH WED...AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE CARIBBEAN. FORECAST CALLS FOR A 1010 MB LOW PRES AREA N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 24N69W BY THU MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS ERODES AS A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT MOVES FROM EAST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH BERMUDA BY LATE THU...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NW FLOW. SE TO S FLOW WILL INCREASE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST FRI...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST FRI NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY FRESH NW FLOW. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST AND REACH A POSITION FROM 31N72W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY SAT NIGHT. WEAKENING FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO N COAST OF HISPANIOLA THEN CONTINUES SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE TO JAMAICA...AND THEN THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN. A WAVE OR LOW PRES IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO FORM ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY...SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS NOTED IN THE AREA WHILE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CROSSES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE W AND NW CARIBBEAN. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED NLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SOUTH OF CUBA. THE WESTERNMOST PORTION OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL MOVE NE ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE SE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS OR SO. STRONG GRADIENT FLOW WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THIS MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INDUCE 25-30 KT WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS 9-12+ FT...AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER SEAS AND VERY STEEP AND DANGEROUS WAVES ACROSS THE SRN BAHAMAS TO THE NE COAST OF CUBA. A BROADER FIELD OF 20-25 KT WINDS WILL ENVELOP THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND MUCH OF THE NW CARIB...WHERE 6-9 FT SEAS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...MODERATE E-SE TRADE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE E PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN...WITH 20 KT AND 6-7 FT SEAS ALONG THE SRN CORRIDOR S OF 14N. REINFORCING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE ATLC WITH ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LONG PERIOD SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...AND W TO NW WINDS OF 20-30 KT PREVAILING N OF 26N. THE LATEST PULSE OF LARGE NW SWELL HAS REACHED THE TROPICAL ATLC E OF THE CARIBBEAN RAISING SEAS TO AROUND 13 FT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR/SS