000 AGXX40 KNHC 181829 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP 1001 MB SURFACE LOW PRES IS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRES TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BUOYS AND SCATTEROMETER SHOW FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDSAT DATA FROM 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWED A BROAD SWATH OF GENERALLY 30 KT WINDS OUT OF THE NW...WITH A COUPLE OF WIND BARBS SHOWING 35 KT...IN THE N CENTRAL GULF. THIS MAY BE READING A LITTLE HIGH COMPARED TO REPORTS FROM BUOY 42001 WHICH SHOWED A BRIEFED PERIOD OF 30 KT WINDS WITH GENERALLY 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH THE MORNING. THE LOW PRES WILL LIFT NE TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS SE OF THE GULF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVER THE GULF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE NW GULF. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SUN...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SUN NIGHT. THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO THE CAROLINA MON...AS LOW PRES DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF AS A RESULT STARTING LATE MON...REACHING AT LEAST 25 KT OVER THE NW GULF BY WED AS THE DEEPENING LOW MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A 15Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT TRADES PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT IS ALREADY STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...PROMPTING 20 KT W TO NW WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS PER ASCAT...AND AT BUOY 42056 E OF COZUMEL. THE FRONT WILL PUSH S THROUGH THE WEEKEND...STALLING AND DISSIPATING MON FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO COSTA RICA. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FROM EASTERN CUBA TO HONDURAN AND NICARAGUAN COASTS. THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST...TO GENERALLY ALONG 19N NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADES OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN ALONG THE VENEZUELAN COAST...AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED...ALTHOUGH WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC E OF THE ISLANDS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... DEEP LOW PRES OFF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL SHIFT ENE TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF THE N FLORIDA COAST OVERNIGHT...REACHING A POSITION FROM 31N73W TO 23N78W. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW PRES DEEPENS...WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...BOTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WATERS N OF 26N. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 16 FT IN THE STRONG WINDS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY SWELL IN THE AREA BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA THROUGH SUN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BY MON AS THE FRONT SHIFTS E OF THE AREA. HIGH PRES BUILDS OFF THE CAROLINA TUE INTO WED...ALLOWING TRADES TO INCREASE MAINLY S OF 25N. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 26N FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN