000 AGXX40 KNHC 171815 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TO WATCH IS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRES SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W WITH AN ESTIMATED PRES AROUND 1011 MB. WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE ONGOING TO THE WEST OF THE LOW PRES AND OVER THE FAR SW GULF. AT 15Z A SHIP 120 NM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO REPORT 35 KT WINDS WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 15 FT...INCLUDING 8 FT NORTHERLY SWELL WITH A 15 SECOND PERIOD. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT SHIFT INTO THE NE GULF. WINDS WILL REACH NEAR GALE FORCE IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF. THE LOW PRES WILL SHIFT THROUGH GEORGIA TOWARD THE CARLINA COAST THROUGH SAT. A TRAILING FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND WILL SWEEP SE OF THE GULF THROUGH FRI NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NE FLOW. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SAT WILL MAINTAIN FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW SAT INTO SUN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUN AND MON AS HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MON. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER TEXAS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... SURFACE HIGH PRES NE OF THE BAHAMAS IS KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 30 KT S OF 14N OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH 15 TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE S OF 18N. WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG IN THE ATLC EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...ALTHOUGH BUOYS INDICATE NORTHERLY SWELL 5 TO 7 FT IN THE AREA. THE STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRI AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA YIELDS TO DEEP LOW PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BARRELING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE FRI...ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH NW WINDS. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE COAST OF NICARAGUA ON SAT...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL PERSIST INTO MON. THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO ALLOW THE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO VEER ESE TO SE AND DIMINISH FURTHER TO LIGHT TO MODERATE FORCE. MEANWHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLC WILL SHIFT SE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND EXTEND ALONG ROUGHLY 19N NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM LATE SAT THROUGH MON. SEAS TO 9 FT IN E SWELL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DECAY THROUGH FRI AS WINDS ABATE. SEAS UP TO 7 FT ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHERLY SWELL UP TO 7 FT WITH PERIODS TO 16 SECONDS WILL SLIP THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN BY LATE SAT. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N55W TO 26N65W TO 27N80W. BUOYS ARE REPORTING N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF THE FRONT W OF 65W...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH LATE FRI. WINDS N OF THE BAHAMAS WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY...REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE BY FRI AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE N OF 26N BY FRI NIGHT IN THE WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA THROUGH SAT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE FRI NIGHT AND SAT...REACHING A POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY SUN MORNING. STRONG WINDS TO 30 KT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE WATERS N OF 25N THROUGH SUN. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH BY MON AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM 27N55W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. NW SWELL UP TO 20 FT WILL PUSH SW PASSED BERMUDA THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON...WITH N SWELL UP TO 8 FT REACHING THE N COAST OF PUERTO RICO BY SAT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEAS TO 18 FT WILL EMERGE AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS THIS WEEKEND MAINLY BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ALONG 25N MON INTO TUE. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND INTO THE WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA BY LATE TUE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 26N FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ080-082...GALE WARNING W AND NW OF COLD FRONT S OF 28N W OF 95W THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN