000 AGXX40 KNHC 161752 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1250 PM EST WED DEC 16 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE LOW PRES IS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N95W IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING EASTWARD THROUGH TEXAS AND N CENTRAL MEXICO. THE LOW PRES CENTER WILL DEEPEN AND SHIFT TO THE NE TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA THROUGH LATE FRI ON THE LEFT FRONT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF...AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TOWARD THE CAROLINA. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ALREADY OVER THE NW GULF AROUND THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES...WITH BUILDING SEAS. BUOY 42020 NE OF BROWNSVILLE IS ALREADY SHOWING SEAS TO 12 FT IN STRONG NE FLOW. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH LATE TODAY PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 95W IN AS COLD AIR PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECT PRIMARILY ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW PRES...AND ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST S OF TAMPICO...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT IN PLACES. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY LATE THU AS THE LOW PRES MOVES NE...ALTHOUGH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE OFF TEXAS FRI...MAINTAINING THE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW INTO SAT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT OVER THE EAST GULF BY SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST SAT INTO SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... SURFACE HIGH PRES NE OF THE BAHAMAS IS KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH 15 TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE S OF 18N. A WINDSAT PASS FROM 11Z SHOWED THE 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ALONG WITH WINDS TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NW OF BARRANQUILLA. WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG IN THE ATLC EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...ALTHOUGH BUOYS INDICATE NORTHERLY SWELL TO 8 FT IN THE AREA. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH EARLY THU. THE STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRI AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA YIELDS TO A COLD FRONT BARRELING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE SW N ATLC. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI...ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH NW WINDS. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE COAST OF NICARAGUA ON SAT...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL PERSIST INTO MON. THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO ALLOW THE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO DIMINISH FURTHER TO LIGHT TO MODERATE. MEANWHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLC WILL SHIFT S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND EXTEND ALONG ROUGHLY 19N NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM LATE SAT THROUGH MON. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... BUOYS ARE SHOWING WINDS INCREASING N OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 25N68W. THIS HIGH PRES ERODES AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SAGS SOUTHWARD...REACHING A POSITION FROM ALONG ROUGHLY 25N BY THU MORNING BEFORE STALLING. THE FAR WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT N OF THE BAHAMAS ON THU...AHEAD OF LOW PRES ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST FROM LATE THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA IN THE PROCESS. THESE WINDS VEER SW AND INCREASE TO GALE FORCE IN THE WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA SAT AND SUN. THE FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY SUN. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT...MOSTLY N OF 25N...ACCOMPANIED BY N SWELL UP TO 15 FT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT...INCREASING THE NW WINDS TO NEAR GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 29N SAT AND SUN CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ080-082...GALE WARNING W AND NW OF COLD FRONT S OF 28N W OF 95W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN